Tories facing worst electoral collapse in a century under Rishi Sunak

The Prime Minister tried to play down the findings today, saying there would be “hundreds more polls” between now and the election expected on November 14.

However the scale of the projected losses is likely to cause more Tory infighting about whether a radical change in direction is needed to avert disaster.

The poll, commissioned by Tory donors, predicts a Labour victory for Sir Keir Starmer, with Labour winning 385 seats and a majority of 120.

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The Tories, in contrast, would have 169 seats, 196 fewer than Boris Johnson won in 2019, and only four more than the Tories held after New Labour’s landslide win in 1997.

The survey suggests around a dozen Tory cabinet ministers could lose their seats, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Attorney General Victoria Prentis.

The SNP would hold only 25 of the 48 seats they won in 2019, a grim prediction for Humza Yousaf, who has set a great store by winning a majority in Scotland, or at least 29 of 57.

The Liberal Democrats are forecast to replace the SNP as the third largest party in the Commons, with 48 seats.

The poll, which surveyed 14,000 respondents over the New Year, broke down the findings to constituency level using the Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification (MRP) method, which successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 general election results.

It suggested Tory MPs are right to fear the impact of the right-wing anti-immigration Reform party founded by Nigel Farage, which has promised to stand in every mainland constituency.

Despite not being forecast to take any seats itself, the poll found it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses by drawing away Tory support, helping other parties win. 

According to the Daily Telegraph, which first reported the findings, the overall result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5% swing to Labour, setting up Sir Keir's party for at least a decade in office.

The poll suggested the main factor was not a surge in support for Labour support, but a collapse in backing for the Tories. 

It forecast Labour would regain all the ‘red wall’ north of England seats it lost in 2017 and 2019, while the LibDems dismantled the Tory ‘blue wall’ in the south.

Speaking in Essex today, Mr Sunak told broadcasters: “There have been lots of polls over the last year, there will be hundreds more polls.

“The choice at that election is clear, it’s stick with our plan that is working, it’s delivering change for people, ensuring they can have the peace of mind that there is a brighter future for their children and we can have renewed pride in our country.”

He said the choice facing voters was the Tories’ plan or “back to square one” with Labour.

Mr Shapps, set to be ousted from his Welwyn Hatfield seat according to the findings, also insisted that the party could turn its fortunes around. 

He told Times Radio: “The world has been through unprecedented times with things like Covid and this war in Europe costing a lot of money.

“But, actually, we do have a plan and that plan is starting to work — inflation being slashed, the number of small boats down by over a third, 36% in fact. So we have a plan which we are working to.”

Asked whether the Tories could turn the current opinion polls around, he said: “Absolutely. “The reason I think we can turn it around is because at least people know we have got a plan and we are working to it. There isn’t a plan under Labour.”

Former Brexit negotiator Lord David Frost, who worked with the Tory donuts behind the poll, said the findings were “stunningly awful” for the Conservatives.

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He said: “These MRP polls have huge samples and give us detailed constituency-level data. They don’t rely on the same sort of back-of-an-envelope extrapolations to get seat results from the headline number. They have a track record of accuracy.

“This poll shows we are going to lose, and lose bad, unless we do something about it. There is only one way to rescue the position and bring back those 2019 voters who have left us.

“It is to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more.”

Sir Simon Clarke, a Cabinet minister under Liz Truss, said the result suggested by the poll would be a “disaster” and that “the time for half measures is over”.

He said. “We either deliver on small boats or we will be destroyed.”

Tory splits on immigration are expected to resurface this week with amendments being tabled to the Safety of Rwanda Bill as it makes its way through the Commons.

The Tory right want the Bill made tougher by ignoring international law, while centrists regard that as inherently wrong and fear it would undermine the UK’s standing in the world.