General Election: Will 2024 be a better year for the SNP?

All eyes will be on the SNP tomorrow as it gears up for the general election with a campaign launch event taking place in the west end of Glasgow.

The party is on very unfamiliar terrain as it heads into battle this year.

Since the independence referendum, which almost wiped out Labour support in Scotland in its aftermath, the SNP has been used to taking on electoral challenges from a position of confidence and optimism.

The 56 Westminster seats it won in 2015 were followed by further successes in Holyrood in 2016 and 2021 where the party again triumphed to form the government, entering a co-operation agreement with the Greens after the latter vote.

Even in the 2017 Westminster election when the SNP lost 21 seats, it was by a considerable distance the victor in Scotland, taking 35 of the country's 59 constituencies.

To many Scots, and indeed people in the rest of the UK, the SNP seemed an unstoppable political force.

But circumstances intervened – Nicola Sturgeon resigned, a bitter leadership contest ensued, police ratcheted up their investigation into the SNP's finances and Labour support rose, with the party taking the former SNP-held seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West as voters shifted their allegiances.

Last year also saw discontent intensify among some in the party over its deal with the Greens, with vocal critics such as long serving MSP Fergus Ewing and former leadership contender Kate Forbes arguing it was damaging their party and calling for the arrangement to be brought to a close.

Read more:

Unspun | How will we survive the politicians before the next general election?

Weeks into the new year, it is far from clear whether 2024 will be better than 2023 or whether it will be yet another annus horribilis.

Pressure will be on First Minister Humza Yousaf to get his party in shape in the crucial months ahead so that it can win back supporters who have drifted over to Labour during the past year or so.

He faces a huge challenge with potentially his own position as party leader and FM at stake if the election goes very badly.

As we've seen already this week, choosing the economy as the subject of his first major speech, Mr Yousaf will be determined to put a renewed focus on economic policy and the cost of living and try to connect independence to both, perhaps in an attempt to present a message of hope to Scots.

By doing so he will be determined to make his party and the constitutional debate relevant to voters struggling with their own pressing standard of living concerns, and win back disillusioned Yessers with a new pitch.

But expectations are being lowered.

Earlier this week Geoff Aberdein, a one time key aide to former First Minister Alex Salmond, and whose political insight is still valued by the SNP, reflected the latest thinking among party strategists.

He noted that losing 10 to 15 seats would be regarded in the SNP as doing better than expected as he discussed the future of the party's deal with the Greens and what sort of general election outcome could bring about the agreement's demise.

One-time Salmond aide Geoff Aberdein believes the SNP-Green coalition is solid until the general election (Image: Newsquest)
"I think that the coalition is pretty solid until the general election," Mr Aberdein told the Holyrood Sources podcast earlier this week.

"Then [it depends] on the results. So if the SNP perform better than expected, losing somewhere like 10 to 15 seats. I think [the First Minister] could say 'well you know, we have out performed expectations, we are sorry to see 15 MPs go, but we will regroup for 2026.'

"Anything more than 15 seats... I think this Green relationship will have to be looked at. I think that there's enough murmurings of discontent around both the parliamentary party but also the membership that are saying, 'Hey, listen, this isn't working'. So that's what I think the future of the Green relationship is based on, the result of the election."

Get Scotland's top politics newsletter sent directly to your inbox each evening.

The problem for Mr Yousaf is that if the SNP do badly in the general election – say losing more than 15 seats – and the deal with the Greens is blamed for the poor performance, his own judgement will come into question.

He was a prominent advocate for continuing to work in partnership with the Greens defending the arrangement robustly – as 'worth its weight in gold' – during the Spring leadership contest.

Tomorrow will be a big moment for the First Minister in what looks set to be another dramatic and critical year for him and his party.