Humza Yousaf: Indy economic speech fails to carve path

It may be a new year – but it looks like the Scottish Government is not shifting its focus away from what it says is an “urgent” need for independence.

Criticism of the Scottish Government, elected on a manifesto to at least try and deliver independence, is somewhat daft.

Given the UK Government has previously granted permission for a vote to be held on separation and the SNP winning Holyrood elections on the basis of pushing for independence, the cause being a central part of government policy can be no surprise.

SNP ministers are well within their right to pursue independence.

There was little surprise then when First Minister Humza Yousaf’s first speech of 2024 was setting out the economic case for independence.

In the lengthy speech of around 40 minutes at Glasgow University, Mr Yousaf pointed to the “urgency” of delivering independence.

But what still escapes the SNP, and has done since that crushing Supreme Court defeat that ruled Holyrood cannot hold its own poll in separation, is a realistic route to independence.

It is quite apparent that SNP and Green ministers want the independence debate to focus on the need for independence instead of how it is delivered – and that is quite simply because as we head for a general election at Westminster, the route has been left in tatters.

The Scottish Government insists that the SNP winning a majority of Scottish seats would give them the authority to open up talks with the UK Government, likely under Keir Starmer, about separation.

It is quite clear to anyone with half a brain that whether Rishi Sunak or Sir Keir secures the keys to Number 10 at the general election, calls for either a second referendum or independence itself, will be filed in the usual place.

One of the biggest challenges facing the SNP going into the general election, and there are many sizeable issues facing the party, is that nobody is really talking about independence as a realistic achievement, even in Scotland.

SNP MP Tommy Sheppard has sensibly said that the debate on independence “stops” if the SNP loses the general election – a home truth that will have party bosses tearing their hair out until polling day.

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Independence still has sizeable support from the electorate in Scotland, but many Yes supporters are fully aware of the fact that removing Scotland from the Union is not happening anytime soon.

With that in mind, there is little shock that Mr Yousaf set out an industrial strategy for Scotland amid part of a renewed economic case for independence, in his first keynote speech of the year.

The First Minister handed over a soundbite during the questions following his speech, insisting that he was not offering “rivers of milk and honey” on the first day of independence.

Most Yes supporters would acknowledge that there will be a transition period, if Scotland ever becomes an independent country, where things would be a bit grim.

But the First Minister’s appeal for calm came minutes after claiming that analysis of research by the Resolution Foundation shows that an independent Scotland would mean Scots would be £10,200 better off after separation if levels of inequality were lower.

He even branded it the “prize of independence”.

First Minister Humza Yousaf insisted he was not offering 'rivers of milk and honey' if independence was achieved (Image: Newsquest)
The First Minister gave us a preview of some of the narrative we are likely to hear from him and his colleagues as the election campaign ramps up.

Some of the story will focus on the broken Westminster system that ignores Scotland.

The SNP need to make sure that an incoming Labour government does not shift support away from independence – something that hasn’t happened yet despite Labour surging in the polls.

Labour and others have long argued that some of the support for independence has been tied to anti-Tory sentiment – with the Conservatives having been in power ever since David Cameron gave the thumbs up for that vote back in 2014.

A huge part of the SNP’s campaign will be to paint Labour as not fit to be an alternative to the Tories in Scotland’s best interests.

Sir Keir’s apparent apathy for reversing Brexit has, unsurprisingly, been jumped on by the First Minister.

In the FM’s speech, he pointed to this as why Labour cannot be trusted on the economy, which he said would be more prosperous after independence.

In a bold claim, Mr Yousaf said that “it is through independence, and in particular the powerful combination of independence and EU membership, that we can raise living standards” in Scotland.

A key strand of the general election will be the cost-of-living crisis – Labour will repeatedly tell voters that the Tories have messed up and they need a go to turn things around.

When people are struggling and want someone to blame, it will be an effective tool – it already is working.

The SNP want a slice of this cake too.

On Monday, Mr Yousaf stressed that “with independence we can build a more productive economy that will generate higher living standards for the people of this country”.

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It is unclear whether voters will want to hear about independence when they cast their vote at the general election, even if they support separation.

But the SNP have little choice but to try and shore up support for their cause, and their candidates, by banging the drum for separation. But they will be forced to say very little about how on earth they can achieve separation and whether any of the claimed benefits will ever matter.