Rishi Sunak: Farage, Rwanda and a general election

The pub quiz fact that we’ll take away from the Rwanda craziness in the Commons is that Rishi Sunak ordered his climate minister to fly back from the COP28 climate summit to vote.

And then, once Graham Stuart had (unnecessarily, it turns out) trooped through the Aye lobby, he jumped on a plane and flew straight back to Dubai.

For the Minister for Net Zero to reach net zero for the 6.36 tonnes of CO2 emitted on his 6,824 round trip on Tuesday, he’ll need to plant at least 197 trees.

There’s been some suggestion that the whole thing was a bit of a ploy, that the vote was never really on a knife edge, but demanding Stuart rush back to Westminster showed those thinking of rebelling or abstaining that No 10 was worried.

It would, the theory goes, be enough to warn them off bringing down the government.

Certainly, Sunak’s victory was more comfortable than we expected and will allow him a bit of cheer over the Christmas break, but his Bill faces a rocky New Year. 

During the Rwanda debate, the SNP’s Joanna Cherry intervened on James Cleverly during his opening speech.

The Home Secretary had been telling MPs that the treaty he signed last week had put “beyond legal doubt the safety of Rwanda”.

This treaty should result in Kigali introducing several safeguards, most notably it should stop the “non-refoulement” principle being breached.

That means it will stop them from returning asylum-seekers shipped over from the UK, directly or indirectly, to their country of origin.

Demanding Minister for Net Zero Graham Stuart rush back to Westminster showed those thinking of rebelling or abstaining from the Rwanda Bill that No 10 was worried (Image: Newsquest)
Well, Cherry not unreasonably asked, if the government has signed this treaty with Rwanda which makes it a safe country, then why are they also introducing the emergency Bill declaring that Rwanda’s safe?

Cleverly didn’t quite answer. “We are putting forward legislation that will be clear and unambiguous, so as to support the treaty,” he said.

If anything, his answer came on Wednesday, in an email to Conservative party supporters.

BETRAYAL, the subject said in all caps.

Labour had voted against the Rwanda Bill, he said, adding that this “marks over 80 times that Labour have voted to block, delay or weaken our plan to Stop the Boats.”

“This is a gross betrayal of hard-working Brits who rightly want control of our borders – and who don't want illegal migrants to jump ahead of those who’ve played by the rules.”

The email continued, claiming a government led by Sir Keir Starmer would take in “100,000 migrants from Europe”.

“We can’t let Sir Keir surrender our borders to criminal gangs and European bureaucrats. So will you chip in any amount today to help us finish the job and keep Sir Keir Out?” he begged.

The Tories don't have a great story to tell on the economy or on public services, but they clearly feel comfortable challenging Labour on immigration.

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Cleverly’s email arrived in inboxes not long after Nigel Farage arrived back in the UK fresh from his bronze medal-winning stint on I'm A Celebrity.

Though he failed to beat Tony Bellew and Sam Thompson in the jungle, a new poll for The Sun by JL Partners, suggests he might beat Rishi Sunak.

The ex-Ukip chief has a net rating of +18 among voters who backed the Tories in 2019. The Prime Minister is on -3.

Though Farage has a negative rating among all voters, he’s still doing better than Sunak, on -29 to -41, respectively.

“Well, it's all very flattering, a little bit bewildering,” Farage told journalists waiting for him at the airport. “It's gonna take some time for me to sort of really take it on board. But fascinating, right?”

I'm still not convinced he'll end up in the Tory party, but it's not hard to understand why some of Sunak's backbenchers, worried about the impact of Reform UK at the ballot box, want to make the party a bit more Farage-y.

The problem for Sunak is that if he does try to toughen up the Rwanda Bill, particularly by changing or scrapping clause 4, which allows migrants to continue lodging individual claims, he risks losing the One Nation group and those in the centre of his party.

If he leaves it as it is, then the right have said they will vote it down. 

But if he gives in to them then he faces a battle in the Lords. A battle he'll struggle to win.

It was one of those weird coincidences that the vote in the Commons fell on the fifth anniversary of the 2019 snap election.

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You'll remember that that was triggered because Boris Johnson was stuck, unable to get his Brexit deal passed by MPs ahead of the EU’s deadline for the Withdrawal Agreement.

Dissolving parliament was, he said at the time, the “only way for the country to move on”.

Could Sunak, stuck now between the “five families” of the Tory party need to do similar to move on?

It feels as if the 2024 general election may now be only a matter of weeks away.