The SNP continues to be the dominant party in Scotland leading Labour by 10 points on General Election voting intention and by 12 points on Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention, according to a new poll.
Despite a series of problems facing Humza Yousaf's party - including an ongoing police investigation into its finances - the SNP remain out in front on Westminster voting intention, with a lead of 10 points over Labour.
Support for Scottish independence is at a similar level to the polling company - Ipsos Mori's - last survey in May, with Yes slightly ahead. Among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 54% say they would vote Yes in an immediate referendum while 46% say they would vote No.
READ MORE: Poll: Scots believe Matheson should resign from government
Voter preferences are similar when Ipsos Mori published its poll in May, with the SNP on 40% (-1 since May), Labour on 30% (+1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged), the Green Party on 3% (unchanged) and other on 5% (+2).
Independence supporters march over the Stirling Old Bridge on their way to Bannockburn in June last year. Photo Colin Mearns/The Herald.
However, at 40%, the proportion of likely voters who say they would vote for the SNP in an immediate General Election is 5 points lower than the 45% who voted for them at the last General Election in December 2019.
In terms of Scottish Parliament voting intention the SNP have a 12-point lead over Labour on Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention, according to the poll for STV news.
READ MORE: Subscriptions from The Herald (heraldscotland.com)
Voter preferences for Holyrood are broadly similar to May, with the SNP on 39% (-3), Labour on 27% (-1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 8% (+1), the Green Party on 4% (unchanged) and other on 6% (+4).
At 39%, the proportion of likely voters who say they would cast their constituency vote for the SNP in an immediate Holyrood Election is 8 points lower than the 47.7% who voted for them at the last Holyrood Election in May 2021.
The SNP also lead Labour by 7 points on regional list voting intention. Headline voting intention finds the SNP on 33% (-2), Labour on 26% (-1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Green Party on 10% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 8% (+3) and Other on 7% (+2).
READ MORE: Why does the SNP still lead the polls after many months of troubles?
However, in a result that will put further pressure on the SNP and Mr Yousaf a majority of the Scottish public (61%) think Michael Matheson should resign as health secretary over the issue of his Ipad roaming bill.
The poll brought bad news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak whose ratings among the Scottish public have worsened, with 72% dissatisfied with his performance in Number 10 now, compared with 53% a year ago.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is the only political leader asked about in the poll to receive a positive net satisfaction rating, as was also the case in May. Some 40% are satisfied with his performance as Scottish Labour leader, while 37% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of +3.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. Photo: PA.
Mr Yousaf’s ratings are more negative. Some 35% are satisfied with his performance as First Minister, while 48% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of -13.
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross receives a negative net satisfaction rating of -27.
New Foreign Secretary David Cameron also receives a negative net satisfaction rating. However, at -27, it is less negative than both Mr Sunak's current rating (-53) and Mr Cameron's own rating in the latter days of his time as Prime Minister (-38 in April 2016).
Dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer has also increased since May. Some 32% are satisfied with his performance as leader of the UK Labour Party, while 52% are dissatisfied, giving him a net satisfaction rating of -20 compared with -12 in May.
The poll found that the Scottish public are slightly more likely to agree that Labour is ready to form the next UK Government (41%) than to disagree with this (36%).
However, in contrast, more disagree than agree that Scottish Labour is ready to form the next Scottish Government (45% vs 32%). There are signs of improvement for Labour in Scotland, however, with a net ‘ready to govern’ rating (the % that agree they are ready to govern in Scotland, minus the % that disagree) of -13 now, compared with -22 a year ago.
Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: “The Labour Party continues to face a political challenge in Scotland. Although the party has made strides in Scotland under Sarwar and Starmer, including the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election win in October, this latest poll finds that they remain 10 points behind the SNP when it comes to General Election voting intention.
"Although Humza Yousaf’s party have been having a difficult time of late, with controversy over Michael Matheson’s parliamentary iPad data roaming bill of almost £11,000, they remain out in front when it comes to voter preferences for both Westminster and Holyrood elections.”
SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown MSP said: "The SNP will continue to work as hard as we can every day to improve the lives of the people of this country. By contrast, it has never been clearer that Westminster just doesn't work for Scotland.
"There is a choice between two futures: an independent Scotland with full powers to build a better country or a Westminster system and Brexit-based UK economy which is driving down people's living standards.
“We take absolutely nothing for granted and will re-double our efforts with the powers we have to help communities and businesses. Independent countries that are like Scotland are fairer and wealthier than the UK - so why not Scotland?”
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 adults aged 16+ across Scotland carrying out interviews by telephone from November 20 to 26 this year.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel