Police Scotland will be forced to run "a reduced attendance model" across the country if the Scottish Government offers a “flat cash” statement in next month’s budget. 

That could mean "delays in attending calls" or officers not even responding at all. 

The force also warned that without a 5% boost to their finances, they would need to reduce their workforce by around 1,500.

The dire warning came from James Gray, Police Scotland’s Chief Financial Officer, in a report to be discussed at Thursday’s meeting of the Scottish Police Authority.

READ MORE: Police Scotland chief: Using force car to go home 'error of judgment’

He says that to keep current commitments on pay and to keep officer numbers above 16,600, the force will need a £74.5m uplift from Deputy First Minister Shona Robison when she sets out her draft tax and spending plans ahead of Christmas. 

He says “flat cash” - where the settlement for 2024/25 remains the same in cash terms as the settlement for 2023/24 - would have “severe operational consequences, causing a significant disruption to services.”

Mr Gray goes on to say that savings “would have to be achieved through salami slicing" and “tactical, short-term measures."

This would see a reduction in the workforce "of up to 1,427 FTE (6.4%) by 31 March 2025."

This, he adds, can only be achieved "through a continuation of the officer recruitment pause throughout the entire duration of 2024-25", along with an “extensive” voluntary redundancy and voluntary early retirement programme.

Redundancies in 2024/25 would be followed by hundreds over the next three years, taking the total "workforce reduction required" to 3,110.

Mr Gray says the impact of flat cash “could be minimised by implementing a pay freeze for 2024-25” but, he adds, this would have “further operational implications and would still require significant workforce reductions.”

The Herald:

READ MORE: Shona Robison braced for 'most difficult budgets under devolution'

The paper goes on to set out a number of the impacts of a flat cash funding settlement, including a “reduction in visible local policing” and an “inability to increase local policing resources and enhance visibility and public confidence.”

The paper then warns that the force will not be able to “augment national and local public protection services in the face of continued growth in reporting of sexual crime and domestic abuse.”

It goes on to state that the lack of new money would mean “an inability to effectively keep people safe in the online space” and an “inability to support the implementation of new legislation.”

That would seemingly include the controversial Hate Crime and Public Order Act due to come into force next Month. 

Mr Gray says Police Scotland’s “proactive capability” will also be reduced, including the force's ability to "keep Scotland’s road users safe” and the ability to investigate serious and organised crime groups.

He also says it will impact the force’s “capacity to effectively respond to major events and incidents” and their “capacity to manage community tensions.

Police Scotland’s ask for a £74.5 increase, works out at around 5% of their total budget £1.4bn. 

They are also asking for a hike in the capital budget of £26.4m to “support the roll out of new capabilities such as body-worn video and for spend to save initiatives.”

In September, the force said they would no longer be investigating minor crimes as part of a project being piloted in the north east of Scotland, instead officers would prioritise “those crimes that have proportionate lines of inquiry.”

On Sunday, Ms  Robison warned that the Scottish Government has “limited room for manoeuvre” and said her budget would be "one of the most difficult” since devolution.

READ MORE: Auchinleck: Officer struck by firework during ‘large-scale disorder’

Speaking to the BBC's Good Morning Scotland on Monday, David Kennedy, the General Secretary of the Scottish Police Federation warned that cuts to policing was already having an impact on communities. 

He pointed to riot police officers coming under attack from a crowd during large-scale disorder in the East Ayrshire village of Auchinleck on Saturday evening.

One officer had to be taken to hospital for treatment after being hit by a firework. 

"If we had community police officers and more police officers in these areas then the intelligence would be there to perhaps stop incidents like this happening."

 

He said Police Scotland risked becoming a police force rather than a police service.

"We police for consent, we are part of the community. And at the moment that isn't happening because there's no police officers in the community working as they should be.

"And the Chief Constable has said she wants to promote community policing and make sure that's back in the service. However, the problem we have is with a £2bn shortfall over the last 10 years and the cuts that we currently come under, I can't see how the police service are going to get that back.

Scottish Conservatives shadow justice secretary Russell Findlay said: "The SNP government has taken £2billion out of Scottish policing over the past decade and officers are being pushed beyond breaking point.

"This document is the latest in a series of clear and ominous warnings that continued cuts are impacting on Police Scotland's job of keeping people safe."

The Scottish Government has been approached for comment.