Suella Braverman is gone but immigration culture war won't slow down

Suella Braverman may be gone – for now – but the UK Government is still going to ramp up its culture war and rhetoric on immigration.

A tough immigration policy is not necessarily a vote-winner, but the Conservatives at Westminster are desperate to regain control of their fate in Downing Street – you only need to glance at the new Foreign Secretary for proof nothing is off the table.

The UK Government has run out of courts to appeal a ruling that its proposed policy to send asylum seekers to Rwanda is unlawful.

So far, Rishi Sunak is resisting pressure from some of his MPs to quit the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – which would be deeply controversial – but the PM hinted he could change UK laws “if necessary” and may reconsider “international relationships”.

Ms Braverman, not content with her scathing letter to Mr Sunak after she was sacked, accusing him of all sorts of mischief, has now demanded that Mr Sunak introduce “emergency legislation” blocking off the ECHR, Human Rights Act and other routes of legal challenge.

The whole situation is a bit of a stalemate. The Supreme Court defeat does not seem to have put off the Conservatives from pursuing their strategy.

It is almost certain that the UK Government will continue pursuing an immigration policy that fits into its culture war.

Home Secretary James Cleverly’s statement to the Commons following the Supreme Court ruling was pretty measured. Can you imagine the anger and fury Ms Braverman would have brought to the dispatch box?

But the new Home Secretary, while suggesting the UK Government will not take the plunge as threatened by his predecessor and leave the EHRC, bluntly set out that those who enter Britain illegally will be sent back “if it’s safe” or to a third country.

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It remains unclear how that will work in reality, given the UK's highest court has ruled its Rwanda policy is unlawful.

There are many reasons why the Tories are pursuing a perceived crackdown on immigration – some of it is ideological, but a heft part of it is political.

Frustratingly for the Conservatives, Labour is miles ahead in the polls despite there being relatively little to separate the parties on key policy areas.

It is safe to assume that a large bulk of the surge in support for Keir Starmer’s party is down to the implosion of the Tory party at Westminster.

The relatively pedestrian strategy from Labour under Sir Keir is to keep quiet and be sensible – which essentially forces the PM to be more extreme to have any chance of standing out against Labour.

Although Labour under Sir Keir has a fairly conservative immigration stance, this has sparked a feeling that a harder strategy on immigration for the Tories can win votes.

This is just one strand of a long-running culture war that part of the Tory movement is grasping with both hands – immigration, net zero, trans rights – Ms Braverman even tried claiming rough sleeping was a lifestyle choice.

The Conservatives will likely try and ramp up the rhetoric ahead of next year’s general election, without the wrath and fury of Ms Braverman leading the charge.

Given “stopping the boats” is a key measure of success for Mr Sunak, he is going to have to deliver something tangible to prevent further dissent within the Tory ranks, even before we get to polling day.

One of the Prime Minister's top priorities is to 'stop the boats' but tough immigration policy has not been the priority of Scottish voters (Image: Newsquest)
A tough immigration policy will not play particularly well with Scottish voters.

The same arguments made for tighter borders did not cut through to Scots during the Brexit debate and there is no evidence it will do so in the current political climate.

With Labour getting caught up in UK-wide debates on immigration and everything else ahead of the crunch election, this allows the SNP to take a different approach and potentially win votes.

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The Scottish Government’s immigration proposals for an independent Scotland set a clear ideological difference – obviously more welcoming and inclusive than the offer from Westminster.

With the route to independence in bits, setting out Scotland as a more welcoming place to others can only help out the SNP.