Sir John Curtice: Tories face bigger defeat to Labour than in 1997

He told the BBC: “When they last happened, the Government did lose very badly indeed.

“The Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.”

Former Tory Chancellor George Osborne had predicted that losing both seats would mean "Armageddon is coming for the Tory party”.

Labour gained 146 seats in 1997 to win 418 MPs, giving Mr Blair a 179-seat majority, while Sir John Major’s Tory party lost 178 seats and ended up with just 165 MPs.

In Tamworth, the Tories had been defending a majority of 19,634 after former MP Chris Pincher quit the Commons in the wake of a sex scandal.

He was found to have drunkenly groped two men in an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s Carlton Club last year.

Boris Johnson’s mishandling of the situation helped bring about his own downfall.

Labour’s Sarah Edwards defeated Tory Andrew Cooper by 1,316 votes on a 23.9% swing.

It was the second highest by-election swing to Labour ever recorded.

Mr Cooper, a local councillor, ungraciously dashed out as Ms Edwards made her acceptance speech. 

Half an hour later, Labour overturned the largest majority since 1945 to win Mid Bedfordshire, which the Tories had held since 1931.

Nadine Dorries won the seat in 2019 with a 24,664 vote majority, but Labour’s Alistair Strathern won by 1,192 votes on a 20.5% swing.

Ms Dorries, a former Culture Secretary, quit after being denied a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours and failing to speak in the Commons for more than a year.

She was accused of abandoning local voters while maintaining a lucrative broadcasting and publishing career outside parliament.

Speaking as he prepared to rturn to the UK after a visit to the Middle East, Rishi Sunak described the results as "disappointing" but said he would stick to his plans to "change our country for the better".

He said: "It is important to remember the context - mid-term elections are always difficult for incumbent governments. And of course there are also local factors at play here."

Right-wing Tory MP Danny Kruger said the Tories needed to be “more robust and braver” ahead of the next election, including on culture war and transgender issues.

Visiting Mid Bedfordshire, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said his party had “made history” and was “redrawing the political map”.

He said: “We know that voters here have voted for us and they’ve put their trust and their confidence in a changed Labour Party, and we will repay them for that trust and confidence.

“We do so humbly. I know there are people yesterday who probably voted Tory in the past who voted for a changed Labour party because they despair at the state of their own party.”

READ MORE:  Labour overturns huge Tory majorities

He claimed Labour was “redrawing the political map” by taking seats which had been comfortably Conservative, ahead of the general election expected next year.

Mr Strathern said his victory showed “nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party”, while Ms Edwards challenged Mr Sunak to “get in your Government car, drive to Buckingham Palace, do the decent thing, and call a general election”.

Prof Sir John told the BBC: “No government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.”

He added that the Tories “may get caught in a pincer movement between some of their former Leave voters wandering off to Labour but others going off to Reform UK”.

He added: “It’s reasonable to argue that the Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.”

He said many of the largest Tory vote collapses in previous by-elections had seen wins for the Liberal Democrats and “didn’t really presage very much”.

However now Labour was the beneficiary.

Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth had seen “big falls in by-elections where the Conservatives are fighting their principal opponents” and that was unusual.

Pressed about the possibility of Labour having a bigger win than in 1997, Prof Sir John repeated that it “could” happen, adding: “We can’t rule out that possibility.”

Despite the particular circumstances of the by-elections, the low turnouts, and Sir Keir being less popular than Mr Blair in his heyday, he denied being over-excited.

He said: “What we’re doing here is comparing by-elections with by-elections. The thing we are seeing in these by-elections last night are results and swings to the Labour party, together with that in Selby three months ago [a Labour gain from then Tories on a 23.7% swing] commensurate with what happened in by-elections before the 1997 general election.

“That is the crucial take away. These are exceptional swings, they’re exceptional swings to the opposition, and when they last happened the Government did lose very badly indeed.”

Mr Sunak was out of the country as the results came in, spending the night in Saudi Arabia on a tour of the Middle East in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks on Israel.

Enduring the media rounds, Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands sought to blame the “legacy issues” predating Mr Sunak’s premiership which led up to the two by-elections, suggesting people “were happy with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister”.

He also pointed to low turnout in both votes, down from 74% at the 2019 general election to 44% in Mid Bedfordshire and from 64 to 36% in Tamworth.

He told Times Radio: “I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour, but clearly there’s been a lot of, if you like, background circumstances in those two by-elections that have also made the job difficult for us.”

In Mid Bedfordshire the Liberal Democrats came third, and claimed their ability to switch Tory voters cleared the way for Labour’s victory.

Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper said: “We nearly doubled our share of the vote which would see the Lib Dems win dozens of seats off the Conservatives in a general election.

“The Liberal Democrats played a crucial role in defeating the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire, and we can play a crucial role in getting rid of this Conservative Government at the next election.”

The LibDems came third in Mid Bedfordshire with 23.1%, compared to 34.1% for Labour and 31.1% for the Tories.

However the LibDems came sixth behind Reform UK, Britain First and UKIP in Tamworth, losing their deposit with 1.6% of the vote, against 45.8% for Labour and 40.7% for the Tories.

Focusing on Mid Bedfordshire, LibDem deputy leader Daisy Cooper said: “We nearly doubled our share of the vote which would see the Lib Dems win dozens of seats off the Conservatives in a general election.

“The Liberal Democrats played a crucial role in defeating the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire, and we can play a crucial role in getting rid of this Conservative Government at the next election.”