Labour gathers for its UK conference in Liverpool today and much of the debate on stage and in meeting rooms over the four day event will be about shifts in the Scottish political landscape.
Here are five ways in which attention will be strongly focussed on the fortunes for the party north of the Border.
1. Introducing the new Scottish MP Michael Shanks
The UK Labour conference could not be happening at a better time for the party as it getting underway just 48 hours after the party's remarkable victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
Expect the party to be parading its winning candidate and newest MP Michael Shanks everywhere in Liverpool during the four day event as members celebrate his victory, the first time Scottish Labour has won a parliamentary by-election since 20211.
The modern studies teacher will be the talk of the conference hall and the topic of much conversation at fringe meetings and in the cafes and bars. Yes Mr Shanks doubles Scottish Labour's tally of Westminster seats to just two, as the SNP's deputy leader Keith Brown rather grumpily pointed out in the early hours of Friday morning after the result was declared, but he did so by taking some 58% of all the votes cast and routing the SNP which won the seat four years ago.
2. Labour Recovery in Scotland
Michael Shanks's success at Rutherglen and Hamilton West gives Labour a sense of confidence that it is finally on the road to revival in Scotland. The party suffered a dramatic and unexpected collapse in its support at the 2015 general election when it was left with a single MP Ian Murray in Edinburgh South with many seeing the result as punishment by the party for its alliance with the Conservatives in pro-Union Better Together campaign ahead of the 2014 independence referendum.
Michael Shanks with Scottish Labour deputy leader Jacqui Baillie. Photo Colin Mearns/The Herald
Further disaster followed in 2016 when it was pushed into third place at Holyrood in that year's Scottish Parliament elections losing its place as the main opposition party to the Scottish Conservatives. Theresa May's snap election in 2017 saw it fare slightly better, netting a total of seven seats, before humiliation struck again in the 2019 general election and 2021 Holyrood elections, when again it was left with a solitary MP and remained in third place at Holyrood.
Now though the talk is not only of Labour improving its tally of MPs by ten or so at the next general election, as previous opinion polls suggested, but that it could even return to its former position as the dominant party in Scotland.
Eminent pollster Sir John Curtice was the first to suggest such a prospect when he assessed the significance of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election result on Friday. "The Labour vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was in 2010 before the tsunami that swept the Labour party from virtually every constituency in Scotland, "Professor Curtice told the BBC.
“If this kind of swing were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole you’d be talking about the Labour Party quite clearly being the dominant party north of the border.”
3. Anas Sarwar
Labour members attending the annual conference in Liverpool are likely to want to know more about Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. They will want to find out more about this politician many will credit with turning around their party's fortunes north of the Border and helping to rout the SNP. Normally the Scottish Labour leader's speech to the conference is something of a sideshow at the event, but expect high interest and a big turn out when Mr Sarwar makes his address to the party faithful on Monday in the main auditorium. Earlier on Monday the Glasgow MSP will also speak at a fringe meeting - billed in the conference handbook as the highlight of the day - along with pollster Peter Kellner.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. Photo PA.
The event, organised by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, is entitled "The Voters' Verdict: Securing Scotland's Future" and is being chaired by Ayesha Hazarika, a broadcaster and commentator, who was a political adviser to senior Labour Party figures, including Harriet Harman and Ed Miliband. Tuesday morning will also see Mr Sarwar address a fringe meeting, this time on constitutional change and whether a Labour government can deliver it and if so what. Expect the Scottish Labour leader to answer questions about independence, especially as many of its new voters now support independence, how a Labour PM would respond to the demand for a new vote on the constitution, and what sort of powers could head Holyrood's way.
4. Winning power at the General Election
Labour is ravenous for power. Out of office since 2010 with the defeat of Labour under Gordon Brown, the party senses its best opportunity since then of regaining Downing Street. Circumstances have aligned in their favour across the UK and in Scotland with storms of troubles hitting their opponents, the Conservatives and the SNP. While partygate and the disastrous and short lived premiership of Liz Truss, spelt disaster for the former, in Scotland, the SNP have been overwhelmed with the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, a fractious leadership contest and ongoing rows, and the ongoing police investigation into party finances.
Winning the next General Election is the main theme of the Labour UK conference. Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jacqui Baillie, who helped mastermind last week's by-election win, will be speaking as a panellist on the topic in the main auditorium on Sunday shortly after the conference address by UK deputy leader Angela Rayner. And throughout the four days of conference numerous workshops for members on effective campaigning and discussions about what the NHS and education and other public services south of the Border would be like under a Labour government.
5. Sir Keir Starmer wants to be Prime Minister for all of the UK
The Labour leader wants to win back Scotland, not simply to help him gather a sufficient number of MPs to pick the keys to Number Ten, but so his premiership has legitimacy north of the Border. He does not want to be like the successive Conservative PMs since David Cameron - Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak governed Britain yet did so with a handful of Tory MPs north of the Border. Such a situation allowed both Nicola Sturgeon and her successor Humza Yousaf to argue that the Conservative Government did and does not have the proper authority or political legitimacy in Scotland.
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