Labour could become the dominant party in Scotland if the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election result is replicated, says elections expert John Curtice. 

The political scientist has given his thoughts on the historic poll, which saw Labour candidate Michael Shanks sweep to victory with more than double the votes of the SNP's Katy Loudon.

Speaking to BBC Scotland, Professor Curtice said: "The Labour vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was in 2010 before the tsunami that swept the Labour party from virtually every constituency in Scotland.

“If this kind of swing were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole you’d be talking about the Labour Party quite clearly being the dominant party north of the border.”

The Herald: Michael Shanks and Anas Sarwar celebrate the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election resultMichael Shanks and Anas Sarwar celebrate the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election result (Image: PA)

Mr Shanks won more than 17,000 votes, 58 per cent of the total votes cast, while the SNP received 8,399 votes (27 per cent). 

Professor Curtice said the 20.4 per cent swing was “well above the kinds of swings we’ve seen in the opinion polls in Scotland”.

The Rutherglen and Hamilton West result has also had people speculating about what it could mean for a general election. 

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the result indicates voters want to "move on" from two Tory and SNP Governments "that offer only more division, more chaos and more infighting.”

Read more: The SNP defeat in Rutherglen and Hamilton West belongs to Humza Yousaf

Professor Curtice said: "This result very firmly confirms the direction of travel indicated by the polls and that Labour do pose a serious challenge to the SNP’s continued dominance at Westminster.

“That potentially has implications for the overall outcome in the general election because, if that were to happen, they would find it easier to get an overall majority.

“But also the kinds of increases that Labour have registered in their vote in this by-election, what they achieved in Selby, this is the kind of results that you see in advance of general elections when parties are on course to win.”

The Herald: Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (Image: PA)

The Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election comes after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was ousted by her constituents for breaking Covid rules. 

It was also the first election in Scotland with the new voter ID rules, brought in by the UK Government. 

First Minister Humza Yousaf blamed the "disappointing" by-election result on the "collapse in the Tory vote" and said the SNP would reflect on what it had to do to regain voters' trust.