Warning of new wave of winter deaths in Scotland as energy bills rise

It has emerged that average dual fuel energy bills over the next three months are set to become 13% higher for the typical household on dual fuel compared to last winter.

It comes as winter deaths caused by cold homes are estimated to have nearly doubled in Scotland in a year during the cost of living crisis.

The total number of excess winter deaths in Scotland, which covers a four-month period from December to March soared from 1,320 in 2021/22 to 2,424 in 2022/23.

Excess winter deaths accounts for the difference between the number of fatalities during the winter months and the average number of deaths during the preceding and following months.

The introduction of a special social tariff to ease the effect of price hikes for those in fuel poverty, paid for by those who can afford to pay or through government support formed part of a plan tabled with ministers last year by ScottishPower's chief executive Keith Anderson to help ease the pressure on people struggling to pay their energy bills.

Rishi Sunak

The coalition of groups has written to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to take action to support vulnerable households with their energy bills in the short term and to commit to introduce a social tariff to make bills cheaper for those that need it.

Households are due to see a fall in their energy bills from October 1 compared to the spring and summer period after a drop in the energy price cap set by the regulator Ofgem which limits how much suppliers can charge households for each unit of gas and electricity they use.

A typical household had been paying £2,074 a year on their dual fuel gas and electricity bill.

That is due to fall to £1,923 between October and December, according to Ofgem. But that is still nearly twice the amount that was set by Ofgem three years ago.

But this winter there is no sign of the reintroduction of a £400 energy bills support scheme to help households as was the case last winter when the UK Government's Energy Price Guarantee set average dual fuel bills at £2500 per year.

An estimated 28 million households received a £66/£67 monthly discount on their energy bills between October 2022 and March 2023, under the scheme.

Anti-fuel poverty campaigners are concerned that without the £400, it means the average monthly cost of energy between October and December will be £160 compared to £141 between October, 2022 and March, this year.

Frazer Scott, chief executive of EAS has warned that that deaths and cases of hypothermia caused by cold damp homes will escalate this winter if more is not done to support the most vulnerable.

"A social tariff will make a difference in reducing avoidable death but it won't in itself eliminate it," he said.

"We need to bring greater fairness to the energy market, to bring down the costs for some of the consumers that are struggling the most. "People's homes are still poorly insulated, of a poor standard and people's incomes relative to that have fallen.

"There should be at least a consultation on the social tariff as it has previously committed to do but it has completely stopped. There is no progress being made and the UK government has not moved an inch.

"There is widespread agreement to bring down the cost.

"We have similar levels of financial cost for households through energy bills which is horrendous.

"People will just cut back and we won't have safe levels of heat and power in their homes.

"The consequence is health decline and deaths."

He said it was a "disgrace" that groups were still having to argue a case for a social tariff saying energy bills are "simply unaffordable" for those on the lowest incomes, those with essential medical needs, the disabled and older people.

He added: "This is fast becoming a humanitarian crisis unfolding in plain sight of our politicians and policymakers.”

Analysis of official data on excess winter deaths presented to the UK Parliament says that 521 people are estimated to have passed away while living in a cold damp home in Scotland in 2022/23.

The study takes in Institute of Health Equity methodology that suggests 21.5% of excess winter deaths are caused by living in cold homes and has raised new concerns that not enough is being done to support those struggling to make ends meet.

According to the estimates  just 284 would have died as a result of cold homes in 2021/22.

Meanwhile some 1200 more Scots were taken to hospital suffering from hypothermia last year as the nation suffered the brunt of the cost of living crisis.

Scottish Ambulance Service data revealed that an average of 200 patients a week were taken to hospital with hypothermia in 2022/23.

The overwhelming bulk of the cases were in the autumn to winter months where the numbers soared by over 1000 - from 5049 to 6062.

December and January saw the biggest spike in cases rising by just over 30% - from just over 830 patients in a month to nearly 1100.

The coalition accept it is unlikely that a social tariff could be implemented in time to provide the immediate support that will be required this winter.

The groups are therefore urging the government to provide targeted support in the short-term.

Rocio Concha, director of policy and advocacy with the consumer organisation Which said: “Despite the energy price cap dropping from October, many consumers on the lowest incomes will pay more for their energy this winter as they will not receive the additional £400 support they got last year through the Energy Bill Support Scheme.

"With energy debt rising substantially, the government urgently needs to set out plans for targeted energy support to support the most vulnerable households this winter.

"However, this ad-hoc support will not be a sustainable long-term solution. The government must listen to calls from charities and MPs and also introduce a properly targeted social tariff as soon as possible to help those struggling to make ends meet.”