Scottish Tories can't escape entrapment of Westminster counterparts

The Scottish Tories are once again having to speak out about an unpalatable political event at Westminster that is putting their credibility at Holyrood at risk.

Scottish Conservative MSP Maurice Golden has hit out at Rishi Sunak’s decision to slow down policies to tackle the climate crisis after he pushed back key deadlines for transport and heat in buildings – as well as announcing that policies that have never existed as policies, were being binned.

Mr Golden has been a key voice holding the Scottish Government to account over its climate change plans, particularly over the doomed deposit return scheme.

At last week’s First Minister’s Questions, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross tried to pin comments made by Humza Yousaf about Scotland moving from the “oil and gas capital of Europe” to the “net zero capital of the world” as yet another indication that North Sea workers will be left behind.

But immediately, Shona Robison, stepping in for the First Minister, brought the argument straight back to the net zero U-turn by Rishi Sunak. It was the only story in town.

It was an obvious move, but it meant that whatever Mr Ross said about oil and gas workers would mean absolutely nothing – the argument had no credibility, and he can thank the Prime Minister for that.

It’s a big problem for the Scottish Conservatives.

The party has for some time and some justification, been picking holes in the Scottish Government’s own net zero strategy.

Scotland’s 2030 legal targets are off track, annual targets keep being missed and key waste targets look impossible to meet.

It’s fair to say that Scotland’s strategy to reach net zero could be more comfortable, despite the best intentions of SNP and Green ministers.

Whatever you make of the Tories’ climate stance, particularly with their arguably short-sighted position around the oil and gas sector, the Scottish Conservatives are the loudest voice calling for the Scottish Government to do better in terms of the climate crisis.

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That tactic now risks becoming a laughing stock due to the political decision of the Prime Minister to try and force a wedge between the Tories and Labour, UK-wide.

Former Scottish Tory media chief, Andy Maciver, has suggested it would be easier for Conservative MSPs to speak out and be more moderate than their UK colleagues if the Scottish Tories were an independent party.

Mr Maciver said that Tories speaking out north of the Border about UK Government policies simply earmarks them as a “spokesman/punchbag in Scotland”.

The Scottish Conservatives cutting ties with the UK party has been floated previously.

A few attempts, notably spearheaded by Murdo Fraser, have been discussed, back in 2011 and then in 2019 for a breakaway party – but were largely rejected due to the optics of a unionist party seeking separation.

If any move was to work, it would need the backing of the entire Scottish Conservative party or risk splitting their vote – not a situation anyone inside the Tories can afford to live with.

But would such a move do the party any good at the ballot box?

So much of the Scottish Conservatives’ success over the last decade has been down to being seen as the anti-SNP or pro-union voice – it has worked successfully, although realistically, it can only take the party so far.

Now the SNP’s plan for independence looks in desperate need of revival, it is a fair conclusion to make that the next general election will not be fought largely on constitutional terms.

The SNP will try its best to make independence the conversation, but with a completely unrealistic strategy to deliver independence, it is unlikely to stick.

That is a problem for the Conservatives, arguably as much as for the SNP.

Both parties have relied on the constitutional conflict as a recruiting tool, with the Tories putting themselves forward as the strongest pro-union voice.

But many unionists will now feel that the union is not under threat, at least anytime soon. Mixed with the optics of a Tory party at Westminster lurching further to the right, it is no surprise that a Scottish electorate could turn their back on Mr Ross’s party.

Another headache for the Scottish Tories is the current perceptions of Scottish Labour.

Anas Sarwar’s party is flying high in the polls, although it is unclear how much of this is down to the SNP’s current troubles and could be temporary.

In any case, there is little doubt that Labour is now seen as the main challenger to the SNP’s dominance in Scotland.

Two years ago, despite Mr Sarwar’s best attempts, the Conservatives finished ahead of Labour at the Holyrood election, but there is now a perception from some that Labour is the main opposition to the SNP at Holyrood.

The Scottish public’s attitude to the UK Government has done the Scottish Conservatives no favours.

First, it was Brexit that the majority of Scots rejected, then Boris Johnson, an extremely unpopular character north of the Border, took charge and launched his wrecking ball at his party’s popularity in Scotland.

During Partygate, Scottish Conservatives, at times, tried to distance themselves from Mr Johnson. Mr Ross gave it a couple of tries.

But surely having the freedom to do so as an independent Scottish party, would have been seen as a more genuine and permanent position by the public.

The Scottish Tories do need to craft their own identity, one way or another. Maybe the Tory conference next week will give them the platform to properly discuss what that looks like ahead of next year’s general election where all bets will be off as the party tries to cling onto power.

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