The 2023 exam results have now been published.

We know that pass rates have dropped, that the attainment gap has widened, and that state schools took a bigger hit than private schools.

To understand how we got here, despite all the promised rejections of a return to the status quo, we need to look at each step in the journey since Covid first appeared four years ago.

In 2020, the cancellation of exams produced results in which pass rates rose and the gap between rich and poor was more than halved. That change was seen as a major problem, and so the government and SQA applied the now-infamous exam algorithm which suppressed the performance of students at schools serving the poorest parts of Scotland. After a remarkable and humiliating U-turn, but not a single resignation or sacking, the algorithm was ditched and students were given the grades they actually deserved.

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Abandoning the algorithm did not, however, do much to alter the overall direction of travel. Ever since, we’ve been on a slow and painful journey back to the status quo.

In 2021 a system of “exams in disguise ” was used in an attempt to ensure greater uniformity (and control) even when an actual exam diet wasn’t possible due to Covid. The flexibility in this system allowed students several attempts at assessments, for example, and although it wasn’t anywhere near perfect it did keep the attainment gap far lower than historic levels.

And then, in 2022, the full exam diet returned. There were some course modifications, student received some support material (much of it mocked or outright dismissed) and the sort of appeal system that used to exist – one where materials like prelims could be taken into account if a student hadn’t performed at the peak of their powers during the narrow window of a traditional examination – was reintroduced. The SQA assured everyone that they would follow a “generous” approach to grading.

The result of all this was a hugely increased gap between rich and poor.

In 2021, the gap stood at about 8 percentage points – the following year, that figure was 15 percentage points. Remember, this isn’t just about abstract data – that increased gap represents an untold number of working class students being awarded fails instead of passing grades.

This year students have even less support. Some course modifications – intended to lower workload during Covid – were retained, but the exam help was not. The appeals system was also cut back – students would no longer have the option of asking for material like prelims to be considered, and would instead be given the option of a review (not, according to the SQA, a remark) of their exam paper.

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The SQA has also insisted that it applied a “sensitive approach” to grading this year. Consideration of the impact on Covid meant adjustments to grade boundaries going further than they perhaps otherwise might have, all with a view to nudging up the pass rate.

The result? Lower pass rates, higher attainment gaps, and a lot of uncertainty over what comes next.

How much worse would the results have been without the so-called “sensitive approach” to grading?

Is that sort of outcome what we can expect next year?

And how is any of this fair on young people whose lives are still being disrupted by Covid?