Without doubt the dominant narrative in Scottish education has been, and continues to be, the goal of ‘closing the attainment gap’. There are various ways in which this gap can be measured and one useful option is to look at the Highers pass rate.

These are, after all, generally regarded as the key qualifications that young people need when they leave school, and it makes sense to ask how much easier it is for wealthier kids to attain them than those from poorer areas.

Immediately prior to the pandemic, the Highers attainment gap was just under 17 percentage points: more than 80% of the wealthiest pupils passed, but for the poorest pupils the figure was around 65%.

Read more: Exam results: Who will be waiting on them and what do they mean?

The impact of Covid meant that exams were cancelled in 2020, and students were awarded grades based on the work they had completed throughout the year so far. Teachers were effectively asked to decide what grade each student actually deserved and, after the government’s U-turn on the use of the now infamous algorithm, that was what they got. Pass rates went up once the lottery of the exam half was removed and, as a result, the attainment gap that year plummeted to less than 7 percentage points.

The exam diet didn’t return for 2021, but the overall process for awarding grades did include young people sitting assessments that some at the time called “exams in disguise”. There was a lot more flexibility available to teachers and young people so, although the attainment gap did rise that year, it still stayed below 8 percentage points.

Then in 2022, things changed. Exams, and the national exam timetable, were brought back. The SQA provided support materials (much of it mocked or dismissed as of little help) and followed what it called a “generous” approach to allocating grades. Nonetheless, the return of the exams also heralded the return of the historic attainment gap – it more than doubled to just under 15 percentage points.

This year, that gap has widened once again, now reaching 16 percentage points as overall pass rates drop. The government is keen to point out that the gap is still lower than it was in 2019 – what they’re probably hoping you don’t notice is that it is higher than it was in 2017 and 2018.

The question now is: what happens next?

Some of the remaining support mechanisms are to be removed from the coming year and we don’t know what sort of approach to grading or appeals will be used.

The attainment gap this year went back to “normal” despite the fact that the SQA was being “sensitive” to young people. So next year, if that sensitivity in terms of grade allocations ends, will we see the gap increase even further?