Amid the UK’s economic malaise, sky-high demand for overseas travel has in many ways appeared to defy gravity.
This boom in international travel, after a protracted period amid the coronavirus pandemic during which journeys overseas were at some times impossible and at others risky and unpredictable, has been crucial for airlines, holiday operators, accommodation providers and airports, enabling them to rebuild their balance sheets.
It has also been great for travellers, as has been evident at airports in the excitement generated by the ability to jump on planes again.
The boom in overseas travel by UK consumers has, in terms of people’s natural reaction to having been cooped up in Brexit Britain for so long, been no surprise at all.
However, it has been somewhat remarkable given the incredible strain on household finances arising from the UK’s inflation woe and generally lamentable economic performance. That said, low unemployment will have lent support to the travel boom.
It has been heartening indeed to see a raft of new route announcements from Scotland’s airports, as the sector navigates its way back from the body blow of the coronavirus pandemic.
Rebuilding connectivity lost amid the pandemic is vital not only to the airports themselves but also to the surrounding economies. So the longer demand for travel remains strong, the better.
Andy Cliffe, the recently installed chief executive of Glasgow Airport owner AGS, noted in May that the airport was this year back to about 86% of its 2019, pre-pandemic capacity, in terms of the total number of seats on flights.
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Glasgow Airport’s passenger numbers climbed to about 6.5 million in 2022, from 2.1 million in 2021. They had fallen to 1.9 million in 2020, from about 8.85 million in 2019. The airport achieved its record annual passenger numbers total of 9.9 million in 2017.
The bounce back in the airport’s passenger numbers has been encouraging. And it would be good to see a continuation of the recent strong demand for travel to enable Glasgow Airport and other airports to continue to build passenger numbers.
There is clearly no need for any panic on this front yet.
Airports and airlines have clearly been enjoying a very good summer, as pent-up demand and a prioritisation of travel over other expenditure have provided a much-needed fillip to an international travel sector laid so low by the pandemic.
However, there some notes of caution have been emerging from key players in the sector.
Ryanair, reporting its results for its first quarter to June 30, declared this week: “We noted a softening in close-in fares in late June and early July.”
And Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers flagged the potential impact of higher mortgage rates and inflation.
Noting that the final outcome for the six months to September was “highly dependent” on “close-in” August and September bookings, it said that, as was normal at this time of year, it had “very limited Q3 visibility and zero Q4 visibility”. However, it added: “Having enjoyed a bumper Christmas and New Year travel period last year - the first festive travel season that wasn’t curtailed by the Covid pandemic - we are conscious that consumers may require some fare stimulation to fill our 25% greater seat capacity this winter, compared to pre-Covid, following months of rising mortgage rates and consumer price inflation.
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“If this transpires, then Ryanair’s load active/yield passive strategy, coupled with our industry-leading cost base, will uniquely position our group to capture further market share, albeit at lower fares this winter.”
This expectation of a silver lining in the cloud, in the form of envisaged greater market share in tougher times, is something of a hallmark of Ryanair. However, the airline’s general observation about higher mortgage rates and inflation is, in the context of the sector as a whole, noteworthy.
Ryanair obviously has to gauge potential demand from customers throughout Europe but the UK is a very significant part of its business. The UK, of course, has a much higher inflation rate than the eurozone. In June, eurozone annual inflation on the harmonised index of consumer prices measure was 5.5%. In the UK in June, annual consumer prices index inflation was 7.9%.
The cautious tone on the outlook for travel has not just come from Ryanair this week.
Heathrow Airport warned on Wednesday that a slowdown in leisure travel is likely later this year.
John Holland-Kaye, chief executive of Heathrow, told Reuters in an interview: “Leisure demand has really defied gravity.”
However, he flagged the cost of living crisis as a “material headwind”.
Mr Holland-Kaye said: “We’ve heard from airlines that they’re just expecting that things will slow down a bit.”
Hearteningly, however, Heathrow did not adjust its forecast for passenger numbers in 2023. It is still predicting, as it did in April, that passenger numbers will total between 70 million and 78 million this year. In 2019, the airport handled 81 million passengers.
While we should not underestimate the extent of the economic headwinds, the appetite for travel will hopefully continue to provide a much-needed significant tailwind for the sector. And demand for travel has proved far more resilient to date than many would have expected given the grim economic conditions.
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At this stage, nothing more than a slight cooling is being suggested by players in the sector.
Hopefully, this would be a worst-case scenario from the perspective of rebuilding connectivity and the crucial part which airports play in boosting local economies. Furthermore, the continuing strength of the international travel sector is important to a UK economy which does not have its troubles to seek, amid inept policymaking by the Conservatives.
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