RISHI Sunak has admitted he and his party are facing a “difficult” night on Thursday as the Tories brace themselves for the worst byelection results in more than half a century.
The Prime Minister suggested voters would take out their frustrations on the government in three contests caused by the sitting MPs leaving in controversial circumstances.
Labour is hoping to gain the Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty seats, while the Liberal Democrats are focused on picking up Somerton & Frome.
“Midterm by-elections for incumbent governments are always difficult, I don’t expect these to be any different from that,” Mr Sunak told ITV.
“But I passionately believe that my priorities are the country’s priorities.”
Listing his five goals, including cutting NHS waits and halving inflation, the PM conceded: “I know that everyone would like to see progress on those things quicker, as would I.
“I want to be honest with people about the challenges, that’s what I’m always going to do in this job.
“But also they should be reassured that I am working day and night to deliver on them.”
However the three byelections fall the day after the latest inflation figures are released, as stubbornly high numbers cause high interest rates and mortgage misery for people.
The Uxbridge & South Ruislip contest was caused by Boris Johnson quitting as an MP rather than accepting the damning verdict of the Commons Privileges Committee.
The cross-party group of MPs found Mr Johnson had repeatedly lied to parliament over Covid rule-breaking in Downing Street while he was Prime Minister.
However, despite Mr Johnson holding the north-west London seat with a majority of just 7,210 in 2019 over Labour, it is regarded as the Tories’ best hope of a win this week.
The party is trying to turn the contest into a referendum on the expansion of the anti-pollution ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) promoted by London’s Labour mayor Sadiq Khan.
The measure is deeply unpopular with many of the local voters in the area.
But Tory prospects in the other two seats are looking grim for the Tories after a year of internal bickering and worsening economic news.
The vacancy in Selby & Ainsty in North Yorkshire was caused by MP Nigel Adams quitting after being denied a peerage in Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list.
He had been due to stand down at the next general election regardless, but his sudden exit has left the Tories thumping 20,000 vote majority looking vulnerable.
If Labour can muster the 18 point swing needed to take it, Sir Keir Starmer’s party will have its biggest byelection win since ousting the Tories in South East Staffordshire in 1996.
The one poll in the seat since the byelection was called put Labour comfortably ahead.
The final byelection in Somerton & Frome, where former MP David Warburton quit amid allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use, is a prime chance for a LibDem gain.
Despite Warburton having a 19,213-vote majority in 2019, the 14.9 point swing the LibDems need to gain it is smaller than the surge to Sir Ed Davey’s in two other recent byelections.
The pollster and political analyst Lord Hayward said the Conservatives could pay the “penalty” for the controversies and turmoil that plagued Mr Johnson’s government
The Tory peer said: “What we’re looking at is a series of by-elections where people will naturally express their anger about the current government.
“People will express their view about the government but – and this is where it becomes different – all the seats… there is the burden of the events of the last 12 months.”
If the Tories lose all three seats in a single day it will be the first time a government has suffered a triple defeat since Labour under Harold Wilson in 1968.
Dr Hannah Bunting of the University of Exeter, a Sky News Elections Analyst, said: “This is the first time a government has defended three parliamentary by-elections on the same day since 1976, so Rishi Sunak has a rare electoral test on his hands.
“The three seats bring different challenges. All eyes will be on Uxbridge & South Ruislip whose west London voters last elected Boris Johnson when he was Prime Minister – even with a relatively safe 14% Conservative majority, it’s expected to be a Labour gain.
“Sir Keir Starmer’s party needs to be winning those kinds of seats to form the next government at a general election, but they haven’t had much success there in recent local elections and turnout rates could work against them.
“If the Tories do manage to lose all three, it’ll be the first time in 55 years that a Prime Minister has suffered such defeat. Add that to a damaged economy and it’s more evidence that the Conservatives’ time in office might be coming to an end.”
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