The excited reaction to talk that the controversial Rosebank oil field project faces regulatory delays reflected campaigners’ hopes it will be blocked even as the economic and environmental case for the development was underlined last week.
A report that authorities had put back a decision on the 300-million barrel development off Shetland until later this year was warmly welcomed by groups such as Friends of the Earth Scotland and Uplift.
Rosebank has been the focus of opposition to North Sea oil and gas activity since the future of the Cambo project West of Shetland was cast into question after Shell cooled on the plan. Norwegian oil giant Equinor is leading work on the Rosebank project which could entail around £4 billion investment.
Campaigners claim use of the oil and gas contained in Rosebank would be a disaster for the planet. Welcoming the reported delay, Friends of the Earth Scotland said: “Rosebank is the biggest undeveloped oil field in the North Sea and if all the oil and gas contained within it is burned it will produce the equivalent CO2 emissions of the annual emissions of 28 low income countries.”
The group said the delay showed that pressure from campaigners and across civil society to stop the Rosebank field is working, adding: “The UK Government needs to end its climate denial and say no to Rosebank once and for all.”
READ MORE: Equinor shrugs off talk of delays on bumper Shetland oil project
The unsourced report concerned, in City A.M, came after Rishi Sunak signalled that the Westminster Government would approve Rosebank. The North Sea Transition Authority will make the final decision, with input from Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning.
Friends of the Earth Scotland’s comments may help galvanize the troops, as Just Stop Oil eco-warriors disrupt events such as the latest Pride march in London and Wimbledon. However, it may be wrong to read too much into the significance of the report.
The potential for delay on Rosebank seems to be related to a technical issue rather than a matter of principle. It concerns proposals to use electricity to power the huge Rosebank production vessel, instead of standard gas turbines. Such electrification initiatives are expected to help secure big cuts in emissions associated with production processes.
Shell’s planning work on the giant Jackdaw gas development was delayed after OPRED expressed concerns, which the energy giant eventually overcome.
It sanctioned Jackdaw in July last year after receiving regulatory clearance. Two months before that the Government imposed the windfall tax on North Sea firms.
Equinor last week dismissed talk of problems with the regulator. A spokesperson said: “We definitely aim for everything to fall in place this year.”
The Norwegian giant’s apparent vote of confidence in Rosebank is especially significant given that it has expressed concerns about the windfall tax, the rate of which was raised in November.
READ MORE: 100 million barrel find to stoke interest in North Sea
Industry champions have said the tax could prompt firms to slash investment in the North Sea.
However, the Government introduced a generous investment allowance for new projects alongside the windfall tax, which Rosebank should qualify for.
The Government made a significant concession recently when it agreed to demands to introduce a windfall tax price floor. This will mean the tax does not apply if prices fall below specified levels for six months.
Equinor’s partner in Rosebank, Ithaca, last week made clear it still plans to develop North Sea finds. The Israeli-owned firm bought the share of the Fotla find it did not already own and said it hoped to have the field in production in 2026.
Ithaca now operates Cambo and recently affirmed hopes that it will develop the field.
A Labour government could put a big spanner in the works if Keir Starmer goes ahead with plans to ban new exploration and development work. However, Labour has said licences that are in place when it takes power will be respected. That could prompt firms to speed up work on developments in coming months.
READ MORE: Scottish Government dithers as investors cash in on renewables boom
Equinor insists Rosebank would support the net zero drive, mainly by reducing the additional emissions associated with imports. Electrification benefits would be the icing on the cake.
It says: “Rosebank results in a reduction in emissions equivalent to taking over 650,000 cars off the road for a year compared with importing 300 million barrels of oil from international sources.”
Rosebank would support huge numbers of jobs as the wait for the expected green jobs boom in Scotland drags on.
Industry body Offshore Energies UK warned yesterday that a ban on oil and gas developments could cost the supply chain £30bn if renewables are not developed fast enough.
The scale of the imports that will be required based on current North Sea production levels was underlined last week when Scottish Gas-owner Centrica struck a $8 billion (£6.2bn) deal with a US supplier.
This will see Centrica buy 14 cargoes of Liquefied Natural Gas annually, for shipment from Louisiana. Centrica said it could provide enough energy to heat five per cent of UK homes for 15 years.
READ MORE: $8bn Centrica gas deal highlights reliance on US supplies
Chief executive Chris O’Shea said the deal would support the UK’s energy security drive. This has become an increasingly important consideration amid the fallout from Russia’s war on Ukraine.
UK production may not be enough to have much impact on the prices set on global markets but can support European efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas.
A minnow has just underlined that there is still lots to go for on the exploration front in the North Sea despite claims there aren’t any big finds to be made off the UK. The Scottish Government cited these claims in defence of the Energy Strategy it released in January following long delays, in which it called for a presumption against exploration.
Deltic Energy said last week that well data showed the Pensacola find it made with Shell in November could contain 100 million barrels recoverable oil and gas, twice as much as previously thought. Pensacola was drilled in an area in which there had been lots of activity. Deltic decided to focus on the area during a deep downturn in the belief that it could harness modern technology to identify potential that others had missed. This appears to have been vindicated.
Deltic persuaded Shell to buy into Pensacola in 2019 and then to proceed with drilling on the prospect after the windfall tax was introduced.
In response to Deltic’s announcement, Shell said: “Locally-produced, responsible oil and gas production is critical for UK energy security and entirely consistent with a net zero pathway,”
Such claims should not just be shouted down by critics of the oil and gas industry at a time when the Scottish Government appears to have little clue how to deliver on plans to secure a ‘just transition’ to a greener energy system.
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