Poll: Nicola Sturgeon's popularity crashes amid police probe into SNP

It put her score below zero for the first time - meaning more voters have a negative view of her than a positive one.

In March, the last time the pollster asked the question, the former first minister was the most popular politician in Scotland with a net favourability rating of +10.

However, this has plummeted by 17 per cent to -7, placing her below Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (-1, no change), and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (-3, down five points).

First Minister Humza Yousaf had an approval rating lower than Ms Sturgeon at -10, while the runner up in the SNP leadership race Kate Forbes had the highest ratings at +2.

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The former SNP leader has also seen drops in the number of people who view her as trustworthy, with 38 per cent stating that characteristic does apply, down 11 points, as honest (41 per cent, down ten points), and genuine (44 per cent, down 11 points).

The poll was carried out from last Friday to Wednesday this week, a period covering Ms Sturgeon arrest by officers involved in Operation Branchform. She was questioned for seven hours before being released without charge pending further inquiries.
In a statement after her release she said: "I know beyond doubt that I am in fact innocent of any wrongdoing."

Former first minister Nicola Sturgeon pictured speaking to journalists following the police search of her home and her husband Peter Murrell's arrest in April.  Photo PA.

Her arrest followed those of Mr Murrell and the SNP treasurer Colin Beattie in April. Like Ms Sturgeon both men were released without charge pending further inquiries.

The poll, for The Scotsman interviewed 1,018 Scottish adults aged over 16, also found Scottish voters almost equally split on support for independence or the Union and remaining stable since March.

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The figures show a small growth in support for Yes since Humza Yousaf’s appointment as First Minister and SNP leader, with 46 per cent (up one point since the last Savanta for The Scotsman poll) of Scots stating they would vote Yes, and 47 per cent (no change) stating they would vote no. A further 7 per cent (down one point) said they did not know.

With don’t knows excluded, the figures sit at 49 per cent for Yes (up one point) and 51 per cent for No (down one point).

The SNP’s support is slightly down in terms of the coming Westminster election, which is due to take place before early 2025, with Mr Yousaf’s party down one point on 38 per cent and Scottish Labour up one point on 34 per cent.

In terms of Westminster voting intentions, the Scottish Conservatives are down two points to 17 per cent, the Scottish Liberal Democrats up one point to 7 per cent, and others make up 4 per cent (no change). Such a result would see the SNP lose 21 seats, but still remain in first place with 27, with Labour behind on 22, up 21, and the Scottish Tories and Lib Dems both receiving five seats, down and up one respectively.

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Figures suggest around one in six SNP voters in 2021 (16 per cent) are moving to Labour for the next Westminster election – an increase from the one in nine noted as doing so in polling in December last year.

In Holyrood terms, the SNP also retains first place ahead of Labour, but remain neck and neck with Mr Sarwar’s party on the Holyrood regional list vote.

Both parties sit on 28 per cent, the SNP down five points from late March and Labour down two points.

The Scottish Conservatives show no change on 18 per cent, while the Scottish Greens are up three points to 13 per cent and the Lib Dems up four points to 11 per cent.

Figures also suggest around one in five SNP voters in 2021 are shifting their list support to the Greens, with one in nine shifting to Labour and under two thirds (63 per cent) sticking with the SNP.

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The constituency vote also remains largely static apart from a three point drop for the Scottish Conservatives to 16 per cent.

The SNP sits on 40 per cent, up one point, and Labour on 33 per cent, also up one point, while the Lib Dems sit on eight per cent, also up one point, and others unchanged on three per cent.

Such a result would see the SNP/Green coalition fall short of an overall majority in Holyrood by three seats, securing 62 seats between them (50 SNP and 12 Green).

However, with 12 more seats for Labour, bringing them up to 34, 21 seats for the Tories, down ten, and 12 seats for the Lib Dems, up eight, there would be an overall unionist majority of 67.

he result could pave the way for similar deals to those across Scottish councils, with Labour running a minority government, propped up by Scottish Tory and Scottish Lib Dem votes, to keep the SNP out of power.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said the independence question remained “finely balanced” despite Ms Sturgeon’s personal ratings.

He said: “How the mighty have fallen. When Savanta first started polling for The Scotsman, Nicola Sturgeon’s net favourability rating was +28; fast forward two-and-a-half years and it’s fallen to -7, the first time it’s been below zero, and the first time that she hasn’t been the most popular politician in Scotland.

“Although she’s no longer leader, one would expect these numbers to have an impact on the SNP’s polling, but it hasn’t. Perhaps, then, the damage has already been done; although this poll sees little change from the last one, Yousaf was leader by that point, and Sturgeon, theoretically, out of the picture, but by that point the SNP were polling lower than they ever had in Savanta polls. The unionists still sense an opportunity, and those parties combined would currently poll over 50 per cent, although we’re still a long way from the next Holyrood elections.

“And so, despite her personal controversy and ratings drop, the SNP marches on without Sturgeon. But what of independence? It always seemed that Sturgeon was so integral to her party and the cause, but Scotland is now so fiercely entrenched by Yes versus No, it goes far beyond one leader, and even one party.

"The independence question remains finely balanced, too close to call were a referendum tomorrow, and therefore there’s still a job to be done for those in the pro-independence camp, with or without Sturgeon as an asset.”

Commenting on the new Savanta’s poll Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said: “The tides are turning and increasingly Scots are looking to Labour to deliver the change we need.

“While the SNP and the Tories are mired in scandal and infighting, Scottish Labour is focused on the priorities of the Scottish people.

“Only Labour can kick the Tories out of power, tackle the cost of living crisis and bring our country together. Scottish Labour - the change that Scotland needs.”