Alan Simpson: Estimating problems does no good whatsoever

How do we know this? Well, scores of people have spent the past few months marauding across Scotland counting them – and they discovered there are actually a lot more of them than was previously estimated.

They even found them in areas where they hadn’t been thought to be living before – probably because nobody had previously bothered to look.

Soon, mountain hares will be everywhere on trains and buses, restaurants and pubs – all hopping about, getting in the way and moaning about how warm it is.

The success story came about after hillwalkers, bird and mammal surveyors and other outdoor enthusiasts took part in a novel on-the-ground national survey in the past year.

They all recorded sightings of hares using a free smartphone app called Mammal Mapper when they were out and about in the great outdoors.

A total of 66 volunteers surveyed 1,465 km using the app and the species was recorded in some new areas, such as near Loch Ewe in Wester Ross.

In addition, many sightings were made in its previously known strongholds in Scotland.

The whole idea for the survey was to give ‘experts’ a better understanding of the species and devise a conservation strategy to prevent them from going extinct.

But as the volunteers have just discovered by simply counting them, is there any need for them to be better protected?

In recent years, vast sums of public money has been channelled into preserving species that are deemed to be under threat.

This is absolutely fair enough as it an ecological disaster to simply allow native species to disappear.

However, as the methodology used in assessing the perceived threat to the mountain hare shows, most of the time they are simply guessing the numbers.

Estimating anything is always a dangerous thing to do and can cause real problems.

All the way through the Covid pandemic, a string of health experts appeared on our screens in their best funereal tucker warning that an estimated number of people had Covid.

Even more alarming still was the follow-up announcement about the number of estimated people who had sadly died from Covid.

Before they would then add that at current estimated projections, the number of Covid cases would be.....

These wildly inaccurate assumptions only succeed in spreading fear and alarm amongst the population, at a time when they were already stressed out.

Experts should only be allowed to deal in verified facts, politicians too, but yet a lot of the time they are content to simply use estimates, which are only slightly more reliable than an outright guess.

Likewise, in conservation studies, a lot of estimates are bandied about about the health of a particular species to justify vast sums of public money being spent.

Capercaillie is one such example. Vast sums of public money – many millions in fact – have been poured into schemes to protect them for decades.

How successful have they been? Well nobody can apparently give a definitive answer – and instead just estimate potential numbers.

That is no way to devise a coherent plan to save anything really. Unless we know how many and where then it is pretty pointless to devise anything.

The Highlands, while vast and remote in places, is not a sub tropical island in the South China Sea with thick jungle, where it is notoriously hard to track species. Many species live on these islands which have yet to even be given a proper listing due to their remoteness.

We are living in an age where everyone has become far more aware of environmental issues and we all do our bit to try and preserve the planet.

There are many species which are currently legitimately under threat of extinction which should be prioritised as a matter of urgency without over-egging those that are not.

Many species in this country are bouncing back after conservation measures were introduced and this should be welcomed and applauded. Others are undoubtedly struggling and efforts should be stepped up to save them.

But making things up to save others does nobody any good at all.