Sturgeon: Restrictions to be reviewed daily amid 'concerning' 10-fold rise in Omicron cases

The number of confirmed Omicron cases in Scotland has risen from nine a week ago to 99 by yesterday, said Nicola Sturgeon.

The First Minister said the variant is a "significant cause for concern" with evidence indicating that infections caused by Omicron are doubling every "two to three days".

The average number of positive Covid cases per day has risen 11% since November 27

Cases have now been detected in nine of Scotland's 14 health board areas, indicating that community transmission is now widespread and potentially sustained.

The proportion of cases detected with the 'S-gene dropout' - a genomic feature of the Omicron variant which is not present in the dominant Delta strain - has also increased from less than one per cent to 4%. 

While not all of these will be Omicron, a majority will be. 

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Scotland is currently detecting around 2,800 positive Covid cases per day - up 11% since the end of November - suggesting that more than 100 new Omicron cases a day are being picked up.  

No additional restrictions have been implemented at present, but employers have been told to ensure that staff who were working from home at the beginning of the pandemic are able to work from home again from now until at least the middle of January.

Ms Sturgeon added that ministers had agreed "in light of the rapidly developing Omicron situation" that it was "important to keep the need for any additional protections under daily review". 

She added: "I hope we can avoid any further measures.

"I cannot guarantee this however and, given the situation we face it is important to remain open to any proportionate measures, for example the extension of Covid certification, that may help us reduce the risks should the situation deteriorate.

"The government will carefully analyse the data in the days ahead. I hope this does not require us to take any decisions ahead of my next scheduled statement a week today, but if it does I will of course return to Parliament."

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In addition to growing evidence that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, it also appears to be able to reinfect individuals who have previously recovered from Covid caused by other strains of the virus - including Delta. 

Work is ongoing to determine to what extent it can evade vaccine-induced immunity, or whether it causes more or less severe disease. 

In South Africa, where it has been spreading rapidly and becoming the dominant strain, only 6% of the population is over 65, compared to 19% in Scotland. 

Overall vaccination rates are also much lower, however, with very few people in South Africa having had a booster, making it difficult to predict how Omicron will behave in Scotland where 40% of people aged 12 and over have now had the third dose.

However, higher transmissibility alone poses a danger to the NHS as it would mean the virus reaching and infecting more individuals - vaccinated and unvaccinated - than would have been the case with the Delta strain. 

Ms Sturgeon said: "We will learn more about the characteristics and implications of Omicron in the days and weeks ahead, and this developing understanding will inform and shape our response.

"However, we can assume already that the emergence of Omicron is a significant challenge for all of us.

"A variant that is more transmissible than Delta, and which has even a limited ability to evade natural or vaccine immunity, has the potential to put very intense additional pressure on the health service.

"And a key point we must understand is this. The sheer weight of numbers of people who could be infected as a result of increased transmissibility and some immune evasion will create this pressure even if the disease the new variant causes in individuals is no more severe than Delta."

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It comes as figures show that the number of planned operations being booked into theatres across NHS Scotland fell by 24 per cent between June and October amid growing pressure on beds.

Figures published today show that 16,704 procedures were scheduled during October, down from 22,014 in June and 29,137 in October 2019 - before the pandemic.

The number of planned operations being scheduled for theatre each month has fallen since June

Of those whose operations were expected to take place between the beginning of July and the end of October, nearly 2000 also had the procedures cancelled by hospitals for "capacity or non-clinical reasons" which can typically factors such as staff shortages or lack of beds.

The period from July to October coincided with two Covid surges and a subsequently increase in admissions linked to the virus, as well as a rise in NHS staff having to self-isolate.

Delayed discharge has been rising sharply since May, at the same time as A&E waiting times (top) have been getting longer due to a lack of beds to move patients requiring hospital admission from the emergency department into wards

However, there was also an increase in unplanned admissions during this time as a result of people presenting at A&E with serious, non-Covid health problems and a squeeze on beds caused by a rise in delayed discharges linked to lengthy waits for patients requiring social care packages or a care home place.

Dr Graeme Eunson, chair of the BMA’s Scottish Consultants Committee said vacancies are “stretching the workforce to the limit” with statistics showing consultant vacancies are up 16% on a year ago, including 193 posts empty for six months or more. 

Waiting times in A&E - a key signal of hospital bed shortages - were also the worst on record during October, with one in 13 patients spending eight hours or more in emergency rooms.

Dr John Thomson, Vice President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine Scotland, said: “This trend is extremely worrying and, most of all, dangerous for patients.”