Beware nationalists bearing gifts. The Scottish Greens may live to regret their involvement with the SNP, the most ruthlessly centralist party in British politics. The SNP is a hydrocarbon party and Nicola Sturgeon gives nothing, but nothing away. Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater may think they have opt outs from the SNP's less green policies on oil, economic growth, tax restraint and spending cuts, but they will soon find themselves held collectively responsible just by being there.
The text of the agreement is a pot pourri of green-smelling reviews, task groups, consultations and ambitions concealing an almost complete absence of commitments, except to policies the government already favours. Cambo is definitely not part of the deal, as Nicola Sturgeon made clear in her testy remarks in Friday's news conference.
Asked to give a yes or no answer on whether the new oil field should be developed, she snapped back that she was not going to give any “simplistic answers” to a complex question. Cambo is not a complex question. It either should be developed commercially or not be developed. Yet the Green co-leaders, Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, actually congratulated the FM for her “significant change of direction”.
The agreement states the blindingly obvious fact that the UK “cannot continue with unlimited recovery of hydrocarbons”. Even BP would agree with that. But the core of the agreement promises only:“ a programme of work and analysis to better understand our energy requirements as we transition to net zero”. “This work,” it continues, “will supplement a wide range of evidence that will be considered to take an informed policy decision on the contribution of North Sea production to the global climate emergency and to Scotland’s economy, security and wellbeing”. That is a grammatically-challenged commitment to nothing whatsoever. It won't even report till the end of 2022.
I'm not actually opposed to this fudge. The Green's simplistic slogan of “keep it in the ground” ignores issues of energy supply, and the reality that fossil fuels will still be need during, and after the transition to net zero. A whole huge range of products, from pharmaceuticals to bicycle helmets, relies on fossil fuels. If this represents a new realism, then so much the better. But I still think the Greens could have been tougher on their demands.
Why is there is no mention of building the charging infrastructure for electric vehicles? This should surely be the number one priority given the phasing out of diesel and petrol cars. Reducing car mileages by 20% will make little difference if they are still emitting CO2. The targets for green energy are weak: “an ambition to deliver, subject to consultation, on 8-12 Gigawatts of onshore wind by 2030 and up to 11 Gigawatts of offshore wind”. Why only an ambition? In 2010 the Scottish Government had an “ambition” of 10GW of offshore wind by 2020; it has delivered less than one.
“New roads projects” it contineus, “will not normally be taken forward except where they reduce maintenance backlog, address road safety concerns, adapt the network to deal with climate change or benefit communities such as bypassing settlements”. I can think of few government roads projects that could not be justified under those commodious criteria. The headline commitments of £5bn for rail over the next parliament, and 10% of the transport budget going on “active travel”, are nugatory and came on the very day the government-controlled ScotRail announced 300 service cuts.
There is no early date for doubling the child payment and meaningless waffle on replacing council tax. As for the Green Party's headline policies on wealth taxes, not a dickie bird. So what is this synthetic coalition intended to achieve?
Well, it gives the Greens a foothold in government for the first time, which is not unimportant. They hope to rival the Labour Party as the main opposition in future. Having ministerial posts gives them more visibility and more credibility in the eyes of the voting public. No longer the “lentil-munching sandal-wearing watermelons”.
As for Nicola Sturgeon, she wants an easier ride for her legislative programme, especially the controversial Gender Recognition Bill, which is one of the few concrete commitments. She also needs green human shields for the COP26 summit in November. Thousands of climate protesters will be descending on Glasgow, which could lead to civil disobedience on scale unseen in Scotland since the G8 summit in 2005
Fresh green blood may also help revive this tired and jaded government and divert attention from the lack of progress to independence. Since the great split with Alex Salmond there has been widespread criticism of the marital duopoly that rules the party: Ms Sturgeon and her husband, CEO Peter Murrell. This coalition-lite will give the SNP membership something new to agonise over while they wait for that referendum that never seems to arrive.
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