PUBLIC health experts in Moray are “cautiously optimistic” that lockdown rules there will be eased following a review later this week.
Last week, Nicola Sturgeon said that outbreaks in Glasgow and Moray meant they would remain in Level 3 restrictions, with a review in a week, while the rest of mainland Scotland moved to Level 2.
Yesterday, Professor Jason Leitch said that a decision on these areas – including any other potential changes – will be taken on either Thursday or Friday.
But speaking this morning, head of health intelligence at NHS Grampian, Jillian Evans, said that the situation in Moray is “really, really promising”.
She told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme: “Moray figures are hovering around the 50 cases per 100,000 but it’s very much a reducing trend I’m glad to say, so we’re showing some real positive signs.
“I think we’ll need a couple more days to be sure this is a definite trend but on all of the indicators we look at – cases, test positivity, looking at vaccinations and listening at what is happening in local communities I think the signs are looking really positive in Moray.
“We’ll be looking at [the figures] over the next two days and based on the thresholds that the Scottish Government are using to determine the levels then we would look to be in a positive position.”
She added: “The main thing is to make sure this is a sustainable trend and not a blip in the numbers, so looking at what is happening over a seven-day period would be a sensible thing to do, but we’re getting close to that now.
“We’ve seen the numbers come down for a number of days and, in fact, we’re seeing single digits of cases in Moray now each day so it’s a really, really promising situation and I’d say we’re cautiously optimistic – we’re at the tipping point of being positive.”
However, Ms Evans admitted that Glasgow is faced with “a bigger logistical challenge” that wasn’t the case in Moray.
“They are different, of course, and they’re bigger,” she said.
“But I think there is some translatable learning. I think the visible signs that public health are putting in as much effort to try and keep the population safe will really help the communities to do the right thing as well, to adhere more to the rules and to self-isolate when asked to do so.
“We’re seeing lots of people come forward for testing, that’s great.
“We had a 400% rise in the number of testing. If that translates into a Glasgow setting then that will allow them to keep ahead of an onward spread.”
Asked about any other advice moving forward, she added: “This is all about being able to spot the signs early and put in targeted interventions to help that community – don’t wait until we’re up at the 50 per 100,000 before you take action.”
The health expert also added that being left behind in Level 3 “absolutely” acted as a wake-up call in Moray.
She said: “That’s one of the triggers that’s caused local communities to really sit up and take notice.
“That, and the efforts of health protection to really demonstrate our seriousness.
“With what’s happening in Glasgow with door-to-door surge testing, it really is a visible sign that this is serious and the possibility of going down a level, or even worse being nudged up a level, is there.”
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