I THINK it was Thumper the rabbit who once said that “if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say nothing at all”, but perhaps Patrick Harvie hasn’t seen Bambi. The co-leader of the Scottish Greens, apparently feeling the pressure to comment on Prince Philip, said: “we recognise that the passing will be felt deeply by some across the country and express our sympathies with his family, who join many others who have lost loved ones in this last year.” How reluctant. How mean. He should have said nothing at all.

The other parties, thankfully, were much more sensitive and it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the pause in campaigning has. Much of the election coverage so far has been dominated by an angry man called Alex and an angry man called George; the bigger parties meanwhile have been reduced to be-masked pics on Twitter. It has felt, at times, like a campaign through frosted glass. Distant. Out of focus. Strange.

The bits of campaigning we’ve actually seen may also be having an unexpected effect. There was a time, after the Salmond inquiry, when it looked like SNP support was being chipped away although it was only ever tiny chips off the block. It did, however, leave them vulnerable to falling short of a majority, although the most recent poll, Opinium, suggests the SNP is at 53% in the constituency vote, up seven points from last month.

The question is: why? because support at that level appears to defy the laws of political physics, mostly the law that great pressure exerted on a solid object will eventually damage it. The SNP has resisted the pressure though, and we should probably have a stab at understanding why. I sometimes get emails from readers saying I never see things from the nationalist point of view, but actually I’m not sure that’s true. Really: I understand why people will be voting for the SNP.

The first reason is Nicola Sturgeon. Quite simply, she is much more able and talented than her rivals. She may not have been at her best in the leaders’ debate, but her ability to sound articulate, clear, calm, and authoritative under stress is remarkable. Even more importantly, she can sound genuinely empathetic in any situation, including the death of a senior Royal (Patrick Harvie may wish to pay particular attention to this point).

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The second reason people vote SNP is just as important: the Tories. Lots of Scots can’t abide Boris Johnson etc and yet the Tories still appear to have an influence over our lives. For a lot of Scots over 40, their hatred of the supremely English Margaret Thatcher is also a kind of muscle memory, an instinctual twitch, which is the reason Nicola Sturgeon keeps using the T word as often as she can.

The third reason is just as obvious: around 45% of Scots support independence and they’ve made a judgment that the SNP is the only credible route to that goal, which means they’re prepared to suspend concerns they might otherwise have about the party. This is what’s called the Fifth Avenue Clause – Donald Trump, you may remember, said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and still not lose votes and the same applies to Nicola Sturgeon. Every day on Twitter there are variations of the sentiment “Nicola Sturgeon can do whatever she wants and I would still vote for her”.

Which leads us to the final two reasons, the first of which is a good old-fashioned one. The SNP have promised to spend a lot of cash on free school meals, free laptops, better playparks, less council tax, and so on. It’s an old tactic – get out the chequebook (or hands-free pay-terminal these days) and promise to splash the poundaroonees. Some voters will see through it, and fact-check what the SNP is promising with what they’ve done in the past, but some of it may cut through.

And finally, the fifth, and possibly most curious reason for SNP support. In the TV debate, Labour’s Anas Sarwar promoted a progressive internationalist agenda and yet many Scots who would consider themselves progressive will be voting SNP. I remember this process happening in 2014: an idea grew that nationalism could be progressive and the hipster wing of the electorate, always keen to be seen to be following the “right” cause, swung behind it. In other words, the SNP and “progressive” nationalism is the fashionable choice, and some people will vote for what’s fashionable.

All five of these factors, I think, have combined to create a formidable block that is apparently as immoveable as the great Labour block of votes was in Scotland in the 70s and 80s. But as I said, there are little chinks and chips, and they are worth looking at. On the First Minister, for example, she is undoubtedly now working on reduced power, her approval ratings down from the super-highs of the past. This may also affect her election promises of cash, and voters’ willingness to believe them.

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The anti-Tory effect may also be limited. As I mentioned, the over-40s still get worked up over Thatcher but I’ve been struck by the attitude of some younger voters who weren’t born when Thatcher was in power. One young Tory supporter in his early 20s told me that, for him and his friends, the establishment is now the SNP, not the Tories. Look at Ade Aibinu for example, who’s standing for the Conservatives in Glasgow. For young people like him, Sturgeon’s 80s-style anti-Toryism doesn’t cut it anymore.

So, what about possible chinks in the last of the factors that’s driving SNP support: independence? Clearly, some of the most passionate yessers will back the party whatever. The SNP’s secret power in a way has been the fact they are the only major party to support independence, but Alex Salmond may, or may not, now deny the SNP a majority on its own. What it means is that, on the edges at least, nationalists now have a choice.

Obviously, we shouldn’t get over-excited here – at most, what’s at stake is a choice between an out-right SNP majority or a combined majority with the Greens and/or Alba. But the bigger question is how robust the five factors will be in the next few years. Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity is unlikely to go up. She will one day be asked about those promises of cash. As for fashionable causes, fashions come and go. These are longer-term trends we’re talking about, obviously. But before they take effect, the SNP will need to get a move on.

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