Salmond: Indyref2: Will the Alba Party help or hinder the cause of independence?

Since Boris Johnson insists no Indyref mandate can be created by the Scottish Parliament elections – this may seem like a moot point. But since respected academics like Professor Sir John Curtice keep citing the 2011 precedent and since countless excited London-based news networks keep pondering the end of the Union, it might be hard for Boris to turn a deaf ear to an SNP total of 65 seats or more.

Some of these will likely be won in the second "top-up" list section of the Holyrood vote, so the Alba Party’s competitive presence there (along with the Greens and a few other smaller Yes list parties) could indeed scupper an SNP working majority. On the other hand, Nicola Sturgeon’s tactics – Both Votes SNP – guarantees that hundreds of thousands of list votes for the party will be "wasted" once again.

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Alex Salmond argues that a super-majority doesn’t necessarily stop the SNP reaching its target of 65 seats and may ultimately be more effective than a one-party working majority. Indeed, the polling company Survation suggests Alba’s intervention could boost the pro-independence MSP tally to 83 – almost two-thirds of the Holyrood total. If ignoring a working majority is a bad look, ignoring two-thirds of MSPs should look even worse. But of course, politics doesn’t work that way.

The worst look of the lot for Boris "Minister for the Union" Johnson would be losing the referendum. So, it’s very likely the path to Indyref2 will be more tortuous than the comparatively simple Edinburgh Agreement which preceded the first one. In which case much will depend on galvanising Scottish opinion for the struggle that lies ahead and retaining the interest of the London media. Which narrative will they pursue if the SNP fails to clinch a working majority but wins a super-majority with Alba and the Greens?

Stronger mandate or squandered opportunity? It’s impossible to know.

The second inevitable consequence of the Alba Party’s interjection is to convert May 6th into the independence election. Of course, issues like Covid recovery, green transition and education will still feature. But if Alex Salmond opens up the innards of the independence debate – currency, deficit, timetable, strategy and all – other parties will be forced to respond. Are they ready? Nicola Sturgeon has avoided all conference debate on independence (save on the Growth Commission report) for several years. Is there anything actually in the kitty?

We will soon find out.

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Will it help or hinder independence if complex, sensitive and controversial aspects of the independence project are concocted in a hurry or blurted out prematurely? Or is it high time all political parties focused in detail on the ever-present Indy elephant in the room?

A third factor in Alba’s impact on independence is the party’s impact on the unionist parties – wrongfooting and possibly replacing them in many parts of Scotland.

Douglas Ross has tried to interest Scottish Labour and LibDems in a tactical voting understanding to "give all three parties a greater chance of picking up constituency seats" as a Sunday paper tactfully described it. A fix by any other name. The idea of joining forces again with the toxic Tories was immediately dismissed by Messrs Sarwar and Rennie – but then the Alba Party burst on to the scene. Now there’s a stark choice facing the unionist parties. They can stand against one another in every list area, splitting the vote and probably losing seats to Alba or form another (secret) Better Together effort.

Persuading their members to vote for other parties could be an uphill battle and accusations of double standards will beset any party leader attacking Alba for "gaming" the list vote, whilst doing exactly the same.

A fourth factor is harder to quantify – the current state of public opinion towards Alex Salmond.

A YouGov poll last summer found his net approval rating even lower than Boris Johnson, whilst of course Nicola Sturgeon regularly weighs in as the most popular politician in Britain, never mind Scotland.

Alex Salmond only needs around six per cent in each regional list for his party to win seats.

But if his presence acts as a permanent rebuke to Nicola Sturgeon’s judgment, if he becomes another front on which she must fight, if his presence in Holyrood creates an uneasy atmosphere that just feels wrong, the SNP leader’s authority will be damaged in a way no opposition leader or pandemic has done and the independence narrative will become more complicated.

Who is really in charge? First Minister Nicola Sturgeon or "Queen-maker" Alex Salmond – a man she clearly loathes?

That’s bound to be a distraction for the media – and could become an obsession.

In all of this, the SNP’s reaction matters.

Alba hasn’t attacked Nicola Sturgeon’s record and advocates a vote for her party in the constituency section on May 6th. Indeed, it’s currently the SNP that looks angry, outflanked and entitled – a bit like Scottish Labour when Alex Salmond snatched victory in 2007. The data leak reported in this paper yesterday suggests local SNP branch officials and activists are amongst the earliest Alba supporters. So much as Salmond’s intervention may irk and even infuriate the leadership, SNP managers would do well to restrain themselves and adopt a much lighter tone.

People aren’t daft.

If they don’t like the Alba proposition they won’t vote for it – no sour-sounding pelters from on high are needed.

Finally though, the vote that really matters is not the May election but the next independence referendum.

And whilst some Yes fans may not care if their (combined) team gives a scrappy performance as they push a super-majority over the line, the all-important undecideds may disagree.

Time alone will tell if Salmond has just revitalised the independence campaign or unhelpfully disrupted it.

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