Salmond inquiry: Stushie won’t mean victory for the Tories, by Rebecca McQuillan

What mechanisms did we have, he asked the deputy speaker, “to ensure that the conduct of the Scottish Government does not bring politics in the whole of the United Kingdom into international disrepute?"

It’s reassuring to know that Mr Fox feels his responsibility to protect the international standing of the UK so acutely, since that has appeared to be ever so slightly in doubt in the past, such as the time he defended the shock prorogation of the mother of parliaments by Boris Johnson (ruled unlawful) or his support of the government last year over a bill empowering it to break international law.

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What a relief to know that Mr Fox is at all times guided by high-minded principle and certainly not party self-interest in any way.

Because if one were cynical, one might be finding it hard to discern whether any of the players in the sorry saga of Salmond and Sturgeon were guided purely by the public interest.

Not only has the committee examining what went wrong with the handling of harassment complaints by the Scottish Government split repeatedly along party lines but attacks on the Scottish Government by certain opposition figures are starting to feel like a feeding frenzy. Could it be that there’s an election coming up?

This is a serious mess and a matter of deep significance for Scotland’s democratic institutions.

It hasn’t yet cut through with the public, but that doesn’t mean it won’t. Scotland’s ruling party is riven with splits and enmities, and the affair has created a crisis of credibility for the Scottish Parliament, as Labour and the Tories suggest.

The Scottish Government, after Nicola Sturgeon promised it would cooperate fully with the inquiry, has delayed and held back when asked to provide evidence, including by denying the committee access to the legal advice it received relating to Mr Salmond’s judicial review.

All this has exposed the committee’s feebleness as a mechanism of scrutiny and accountability, while the Scottish Government has come across as complacent and arrogant.

The suggestion from Mr Salmond’s team that the Crown Office is guilty of “highly irregular” action by redacting previously published evidence, is about as serious as it gets, though it must be said that the Crown Office robustly denies that it did anything wrong.

We are now left with speculation about a judge-led inquiry into the workings of the system – an inquiry into an inquiry into an inquiry, if you will, which takes us deep into Monty Python territory. If your head is in your hands, I feel your pain.

Nicola Sturgeon went on the attack in parliament yesterday, accusing Ruth Davidson of signing up to “conspiracy theories” that risk undermining the integrity of Scotland’s judiciary. The problem is, of course, that if she were in Ms Davidson’s position we can assume she too would be repeating the accusations.

Now, one can understand how some opposition politicians, especially the Tories, might be feeling unseemly glee at what they see as the imploding of the SNP just two months before a critical election. Ms Sturgeon’s outfit has seemed so untouchable for so long. It has trundled through fully 14 years in power as impervious as an armadillo, while the opposition parties have flapped and squawked impotently on the sidelines.

This must seem like their chance. The Tories, as the main party of opposition, have talked of occupying St Andrews House since Ruth Davidson led them in from the cold, but they have never been serious challengers to the SNP. But if this is the beginning of the SNP’s big decline – and at this stage it’s still an “if” - then could the Tories start to dream of victory again, if not at the forthcoming election then perhaps the one after?

Unlikely. The problem is that the Tories haven’t stopped being unpopular with a majority of Scottish voters just because the SNP is in trouble. And they still haven’t worked out how to appeal to independence supporters.

The party is falling back on its old playbook. As I write, a Scottish Conservative leaflet has dropped through the door bearing two messages: stop an SNP majority and stop another referendum. It’s a re-run of 2016 and 2017. Back then, the party boosted its seat share in Holyrood and Westminster. Running the same campaign again will shore up that support but can’t reach much higher.

The Tories need what the SNP have always tried to offer – a positive reason to vote for them – but that’s not going too well. The ill-starred “union unit” in Downing Street has just been disbanded. Instead, there’s to be a cabinet committee, chaired by the Prime Minister.

The plan appears to be for the UK Government unrepentantly to assert its power in Scotland, including by spending millions in Scotland in devolved areas like transport and culture, bypassing Holyrood and directly funding projects from SW1. The Tories hope it will underline the benefits of the union.

However, the SNP say the money, which effectively replaces EU funding, should have come to Holyrood and is a “power grab”. I have an inkling about which message will cut through.

No; it is not the Tories but Labour who are in the better position to attract disaffected SNP voters. The party is entering a new phase with the announcement of a new leader tomorrow. Unlike the Tories, it is unencumbered by association with an unpopular Westminster government and has a more progressive alternative to independence to talk about.

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As for the Salmond affair, Ms Sturgeon has a Corbett of questions to answer when she appears before the committee next week, following Alex Salmond’s planned appearance today.

But whatever happens, her party is flying so high that it will continue to dominate – for now. Those who want to benefit from its longer-term decline will need more than withering soundbites.

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