SCOTLAND’S national clinical director has suggested that “quite a lot of the country” could move straight into level 2 if enough progress is made when the tiered strategy is re-introduced in April.
But Professor Jason Leitch warned that a lack of movement over the prevalence of the virus declining over recent weeks “has given us cause for reflection”.
He was speaking at an appearance in front of MSPs on Holyrood’s Covid Committee – suggesting that when the tiers are re-introduced in the last week of April, as is expected to happen, it could be done on a more regional basis rather than individual local authorities.
Professor Leitch said that the strategic framework published by the Scottish Government on Tuesday “doesn’t say everybody will move to level 3”.
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But when announcing a return to the levels system on Tuesday, Nicola Sturgeon said that "we hope that all parts of the country that are currently in level 4 will be able to move out of level 4 and back initially to level 3”.
Professor Leitch added that the document “doesn’t say everybody will move to a single number in their local authority and it doesn’t say what the levels will contain”.
He added that “all of that “will be discussed with stakeholders, with the Cabinet, in the lead-up to that work”.
Details of the levels are expected to be set out in the middle of March by ministers.
Professor Leitch added: “If it allows, then it is possible that quite a lot of the country will move to level 2.”
He said that “the most recent version of the levels is the one we remember”, but stressed that “if you go back a little bit further, you will remember we had Central Belt restrictions, not individual local authority restrictions at some points”.
He added: “It may be that you could divide the country into different cohorts – groups of local authorities, perhaps health boards, perhaps larger even than health boards.
“We want that to be as simple as it can be.
“We don’t want to do it every week because we think that was too often and created more confusion for the public actually than light. We’ve said three weeks, probably.
“We’ve also said that what’s in each level will be talked about in more depth. The basics will be the same – there will be a section on hospitality, a section on tourism, a section on family interaction”.
But Professor Leitch stressed that “the nature of what hospitality is allowed” , such as whether alcohol can be served and “whether there’s two sittings” will be worked out before more details are published next month.
Dominic Munro, the Scottish Government’s director for Covid-19 exit strategy warned that “we need to be really careful that in considering sensible easings...we don’t at the same time, reduce the effectiveness of the levels because they are designed to suppress the virus”.
He added: “The way the regulations are set up, we can do this using local authorities as the building blocks.
READ MORE: Coronavirus: Parts of Scotland 'could go straight into Level Two' from end of April
“But very possibly, it will make sense to do bigger conglomerations of local authorities and indeed, if we need to go below.
“We’ve got the flexibility to do all of these things.”
Professor Leitch warned MSPs that “no country has decided to relax during the new variant”, adding that when the levels are re-introduced “the ranges will be tighter or lower”.
Committee convener, Donald Cameron, asked why there has been “a stalling” in the prevalence of the virus declining. The national clinical director warned that “there are multiple reasons” for case prevalence levels remaining static.
He added: “It does appear that all four UK countries have stalled or slowed the decline. Everybody has got to about 100 per 100,000 but it has stalled there.
“The cases are harder to find, we are on the edge of what we can find in terms of Test and protect.”
He added that individual actions are “still working for the new variants but they do not work as quickly”.
Professor Leitch said: “In the last week, we have gone from 104 to 104. The last week has given us cause for reflection.”
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