Analysis: Joe Biden's mission will be to lead America's recovery from Covid-19 and Trumpism

Some 20,000 armed National Guard troops have been drafted in and a seven-foot “non-scalable” razor wire fence has been erected around the Capitol building. Streets have been blocked off with concrete barriers. The US capital has become “Fortress Washington”.

Worryingly, the FBI has already identified more than 200 suspects who have threatened violence. Chris Wray, its director, revealed his force was tracking an "extensive amount of concerning online chatter," which had included calls for armed protests.

"One of the real challenges in this space is trying to distinguish what's aspirational versus what's intentional," explained Mr Wray.

But the threat of violence exists not just in Washington but across all 50 state capitals. Hotels are not taking bookings and police patrols have increased while restrictions have been introduced on people carrying guns in their luggage.

The traditional razzmatazz of inauguration day will be scaled back. Social distancing and mask wearing will be compulsory.

The National Mall is closed, there will be no grand parade to the White House and citizens are being told to stay away. Ticket restrictions have even been applied to the great and the good of Congress.

Some showbiz glamour will be provided by Lady Gaga, who will sing the national anthem while Jennifer Lopez will perform a song at the front of the Capitol, a sharp contrast to the scene days ago when Trump-supporting rioters stormed the building.

The raft of inauguration balls will be replaced by a TV special, Celebrating America, hosted by actor Tom Hanks alongside singers Jon Bon Jovi and Justin Timberlake. Its aim will be to "celebrate the beginning of a new national journey toward an America united".

While Mike Pence, the outgoing Vice President, will be there, there will be one notable absentee; Mr Trump. He is expected to be watching proceedings from a leather sofa at his 128-room Mar-a-Lago mansion in Florida.

Any chance of him flying to Scotland for a round of golf at his Turnberry course has been kiboshed by Nicola Sturgeon. The First Minister made clear Covid rules meant the 74-year-old would have to take his golf clubs somewhere else.

Indeed, the swearing in of one president could ironically mark the start of the Senate trial of the another after Mr Trump this week made history by becoming the first holder of the great office to be impeached for a second time.

Although senior Democrats are calling for the trial to be pushed back to remove the shadow it would cast over the start of the new administration. The Senate would need a two-thirds majority to convict Mr Trump and bar him from public office for life.

Key will be the view of leading Republican Mitch McConnell, the outgoing Senate leader, who has broken with Mr Trump, telling party donors he is through with him. The healing of the divisions within Republican ranks will take years.

Of course, however, the focal point of inauguration day will not only be Mr Biden, hand raised taking the Oath of Office, but also his acceptance speech in which he will set out the many challenges facing America but also seek to give it hope that his term at the White House will begin a healing of and recovery from the bitter divisions that have so divided the country for so long.

As with Boris Johnson and every other democratic leader, the new President’s term in office will be dominated by the battle against the coronavirus.

America has seen the deaths of more than 385,000 of its citizens, the world’s worst tally. On Thursday, official figures showed a rise in weekly unemployment claims, to almost one million, indicating that the increased infection rate is forcing businesses to lay off workers.

This week, Mr Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion or £1.4tr coronavirus plan to end a “crisis of deep human suffering" by expediting the vaccine roll-out and distributing financial help to citizens and businesses struggling with the prolonged economic effects of the pandemic.

Ordinary Americans will get £1,000 cheques from the Government, see the minimum pay raised, welfare payments increased and have the threat of being evicted lifted.

"The crisis of deep human suffering is in plain sight and there's not time to waste," declared Mr Biden. "We have to act and we have to act now,” he insisted.

The American Rescue Plan, explained the President-elect, was not only an economic imperative but also a moral obligation. It aims to administer 100 million vaccines by the 100th day of his administration and reopen most schools by the start of May.

As with the UK, the US aid package will, initially, be paid for with borrowed money, adding to trillions of dollars of debt to the mountain the Government has already incurred to battle the pandemic.

With the Democrats now controlling the House and the Senate, Mr Biden is expected to push through as many economic and social policies as he can in the first two years of his presidency but the very slim majority will not guarantee everything.

At 78, many believe he will serve only one term, possibly leaving the way open for Kamala Harris, the Vice President, to run on the Democrat ticket in 2024.

In his speech this week, Mr Biden outlined his vision for the second part of his "two-step plan" for a climate-friendly economic recovery, which he will present in more detail next month.

He said: "Imagine confronting the climate crisis with American jobs and ingenuity leading the world,” stressing: “It's time to stop talking about infrastructure and finally start building infrastructure so we can be more competitive.”

He added: "I know what I described does not come cheaply but failure to do so will cost us dearly."

So, following an economic aid programme, there will be an even bigger investment programme, involving higher public spending, paid for, in part, by tax hikes for the better off. He is expected to adopt tougher pollution rules and expand the production of electric cars.

As well as huge challenges domestically, Mr Biden faces huge challenges in terms of foreign policy and in particular rebuilding alliances damaged by the years of America First Trumpism.

From how to handle the fractious relationship with China and the renewed threat from North Korea to the tensions in the Middle East to dealing with the cyber threat from Russia, the presidential in-tray is full of foreign policy problems. But Mr Biden’s emphasis is expected to be on working more with international allies and rebuilding its relationship with institutions like Nato and the World Health Organisation.

While the incoming President is keen to re-engage with Iran over the nuclear deal, he will have to step carefully in terms of America’s close relationship with Israel as well as its links to the Gulf States, most notably Saudi Arabia.

Sir Peter Westmacott, former UK ambassador to the US, said yesterday the Trump administration had “deliberately undermined” many of the institutions that had kept the world safe and some countries would still be wary of trusting America, fearing a return of Trumpism in future.

He insisted the key change would be that the Biden administration would want to work with allies.

“For example,” explained Sir Peter, “it’s absurd Scotch whisky exports have gone down by $400m to America because Trump slapped tariffs on us… Trade issues as well as dealing with complex foreign policy issues are going to be addressed in much more collegiate way and it’s up to the rest of us to engage with this administration to find common solutions.”

Of course, one of the biggest bridge-building exercises for the new president will be with post-Brexit Britain; he and Boris Johnson have never met.

There are Democrat scars in Washington over how closely the Prime Minister snuggled up to Mr Trump; indeed, Mr Biden once described Mr Johnson as a "physical and emotional clone" of his Republican adversary. Now, out of the EU, some have referred to the “not so special relationship”.

During the brinkmanship on the UK-EU trade deal, the incoming President warned in a tweet about how a future UK-US trade deal depended on Britain not unravelling the Good Friday Agreement that had brought peace to Northern Ireland; Mr Biden is incredibly proud of his Irish roots.

The worry for Downing St now will be that when in the past the President would make his first call across the Atlantic to London, following the UK’s departure from the EU, it will now be with Brussels, Berlin or Paris.

And yet in a world of enemies, the incoming US administration will want to make friends and will appreciate the importance of America’s historical cultural, economic and cultural ties with its old ally Britain.

The Biden administration is likely to be a far more predictable and reliable friend than its predecessor; that would not be difficult. But the chances of an early UK-US trade deal are not high as the incoming President’s main focus will be domestic.

Covid permitting, Mr Biden is expected to be among world leaders attending the UK-hosted G7 summit in the UK this June. Indeed, it could well be his first trip to the UK as President and will give him a chance to forge a friendship with Mr Johnson.

And then there is climate change. After Mr Trump controversially scrapped America’s adherence to the Paris accord, Mr Biden has pledged to sign America back up to it and is expected, again Covid permitting, to turn up in Glasgow in November for the showcase COP26 summit.

The challenges now confronting the 78-year-old leader are the greatest since those FDR faced during the Second World War. We can only hope that Mr Biden can overcome them for America’s sake and our own.