NEWLY opened Scottish cabinet records from 2005 have revealed striking parallels between then and now in planning for a pandemic.

Files released by the National Records of Scotland show ministers preparing for an influenza pandemic 15 years ago that they feared could kill 45,000 Scots. 

Confirmed cases of coronavirus have so far killed around 4,500 Scots. 

The files show the then Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition rated a flu pandemic as one of the top threats facing the country alongside terrorism and extreme weather caused by climate change.

A paper circulated by Justice Secretary Cathy Jamieson in September 2005 warned a flu pandemic was “likely to start sometime in the reasonably near future” as a result of avian flu mutating and spreading among humans.

It warned the pandemic was “likely to spread very quickly from the far east to Europe through travellers" and it would take time to develop a vaccine.

Fourteen years later, the coronavirus pandemic was initially spread by travellers from the Wuhan area of China, where it originated, into Europe.

The cabinet briefing of 2005 said: “Experts predict that up to a quarter of the population could be affected (across the age range). On this basis up top 45,000 additional people could due in Scotland within a 3 month period if pandemic spreads to the UK, but much will depend on the nature of the virus and how quickly it spreads.”

Like today, much was uncertain, with Ms Jamieson warning that although options could be prepared “actual decisions on action could not be taken until a pandemic were in progress and the nature of the virus is clear”.

The minutes of a cabinet discussion on October 5, 2005, show ministers were told it could take “at least 6 months from a pandemic beginning to produce a vaccine in sufficient quantities to vaccinate the general population”.

However vaccines against the current avian flu were being bought “in the hope” they would provide some protection for NHS staff against a future, deadlier mutation. 

The minutes said ministers had discussed how “a pandemic influenza would present a range of challenges to Scotland in terms of: business continuity and service delivery across the board; maintaining public order; and protecting health service staff.” 

At numerous times this year – particularly in the last few months – Scottish ministers have been pushed to close schools to halt the spread of Covid-19.

During the October 2005 cabinet, ministers said there could be “political pressure” applied to do the same.

The report by Ms Jamieson, who was chairing the Ministerial Group for Civil Contingencies, also said that a UK-wide media campaign, including TV advertisements and leafleting, would be needed to get across important public health messages.

Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in Scotland, senior health officials were used to front TV and radio campaigns.