Coronavirus Scotland: At least 14 per cent of cases linked to mutant strain

It comes after it was confirmed that there are 18 known cases of the variant Covid infection in Scotland.

Camley's Cartoon: Covid crackdown

The vast majority have been detected in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, with some in Lanarkshire.

READ MORE: Mutant Covid strain detected in two Scottish health board areas

The new form of the virus, which is believed to have first emerged in Kent in September and is characterised by an unusually high number of mutations, is thought to be up to 70% more transmissable. 

Scientists advising the UK Government have said it could drive up the R number by around 0.4 points - but potentially as much as 0.93 - which would tirgger a substantial acceleration in the epidemic curve.

The variant can be detected through PCR testing by looking for a "proxy marker" in the virus' molecular code, known as the S-Gene dropout.

Although not exact, it provides a good estimate of the variant's prevalence within the overall coronavirus ciruculation.

Referring to a Covid infection survey carried out by the Office of National Statistics, based on a random sample of the population in Scotland, Ms Sturgeon said: "There is continuing technical work underway on the use of the S-Gene dropout as a marker for the new strain and it is not definitive that every case with this marker will be the new variant.

"However, the analysis suggests that in week beginning 9 December around 14% of positive cases in Scotland already had this S-Gene dropout.

"This compares to just 5% at the end of November.

"And it is not unreasonable to assume that the proportion may be higher now. Public Health Scotland is carrying out further analysis.

"14% is, of course, still a significantly lower level than England, where it is thought that the new variant accounts for 36% of cases, and will be even higher in London and the South East.

"However, the very rapid spread in London and the south east serves as a warning of what we will face here if we do not take firm action to suppress the virus.

"We have a real concern that, without significant counter measures, we could be facing another period of exponential growth as we enter the new year.

"That would mean many more people catching Covid and, even without this new strain causing more severe illness, that would result in many more people needing hospital and intensive care.

"And that would put an enormous strain on the NHS and lead to much more loss of life."

READ MORE: The health board areas where hospital cases are rising fastest

Ms Sturgeon noted that the prevalence of Covid had risen in Scotland in the past two weeks, from around 100 to 116 cases per 100,000. 

This is around half the virus rate in England and around a fifth of that in Wales, however. 

Ms Sturgeon noted that the number of people in hospital and ICU with Covid had "risen slightly" nationwide "after a period of quite marked decline". 

In Ayrshire and Arran, the number of people in hospital with Covid is up 71%, to 151, while in the Borders there has been an 83% increase, to 22 patients, since December 9.

Scotland will be plunged into Level 4 restrictions nationwide from Boxing Day for a period of three weeks, meaning that all non-essential shops and businesses, including pubs, restaurants, hairdressers and gyms, will be forced to close.

However, the First Minister warned that even tougher restrictions might be needed, adding that plans to reopen schools for non-online learning from January 18 will be kept under review.

Work is underway to investigate theories that the new variant may be spreading more easily in children than previous versions of the virus.  

However, there is no evidence currently that the new strain causes more severe disease or will be resistant to Covid vaccines. 

Ms Sturgeon said: "As more evidence of the impact of this new strain becomes available, we will consider whether there is a need to strengthen level 4 restrictions any further.

"Again, to be blunt with Parliament and the public, the current level 4 restrictions are not as stringent as the March lockdown.

"However, it seems that we are facing a virus that spreads much faster now than in March, so we need to consider whether the current level 4 restrictions will be sufficient to suppress it.

"This will be analysis that the Government undertakes urgently as our understanding of the new strain of the virus develops, and I will keep Parliament updated as necessary."

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It comes after mathematician and independent SAGE member, Professor Christina Pagel, said she would put the whole of England under immediate Tier 4 restrictions, amid fears that the variant strain is will soon be running out of control.

Speaking to BBC Radio FiveLive, Prof Pagel, said: "If I could wave a magic wand I'd put everywhere in Tier Four now, today.

"The current Tier 4 is surrounded by Tier 2 and if you look at local authorities in those Tier 2 regions surrounding Tier 4 they're all shooting up. They're absolutely shooting up - they're not in control at all."

Prof Pagel is the director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London, which applies operational research, data analysis and mathematical modelling to problems in health care.

She added: "The idea that it's not spreading everywhere now is fanciful, especially - as you saw on Saturday - there was this exodus from the south as people went round the country for Christmas.

"Waiting until we see that - we already are seeing that in Tier 2 regions in the south east - but waiting until we see it everywhere is just a disaster.

"If we want to have any chance of opening schools safely we have to lockdown now and hope that Tier 4 is enough.

"I hope it is - and if it isn't we're going to have to start really thinking about how we can control it because the NHS is going to be in real danger."