An online Covid-19 calculator has identified several Scottish local authorities being at high risk of being 'coronavirus hotspot' on over the Christmas period.

Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 100 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'

Clackmannanshire was deemed to be the most likely in the country to become a hotspot between December 20 and Boxing Day, sitting at 94%, according to the tool.

North Ayrshire and Fife both have a high chance of becoming a hotspot over that period, at 92%.

The Herald: The Imperial College London coronavirus hotspot mapThe Imperial College London coronavirus hotspot map

East Lothian, which the First Minister confirmed will be moving into Level 3 from December 18, is deemed to be 78% likely to have more than 100 cases per 100,000.

And Glasgow, which recently moved out of Level 4 into Level 3, has a 64% chance.

Meanwhile heading further west, Inverclyde is ranked at 10%, West Dunbartonshire at 9% and Argyll and Bute at 18%.

Some areas, including Orkney, Moray, Shetland Islands and Dumfries and Galloway are all deemed to have a 0% risk of becoming a hotspot over the festive period.

The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

It comes as Nicola Sturgeon and other UK leaders held four-nations discussions over the relaxation of rules over the Christmas period, following the discovery of a new coronavirus variant in the UK.

There are at least nine cases of the new strain detected in Scotland, all in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde.

Under the current plans, eight people from three households will be able to mix indoors between December 23 and December 27.

However a new position over the rules was not yet agreed, with further discussions due on Wednesday before a potential announcement on Thursday.

A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “The four nations call was a good opportunity to review the position on Christmas and discuss whether the messaging or guidance requires to be reinforced.”

Here are the chances of a hotspot in your area, according to the study:

  • Aberdeen City - 82%
  • Aberdeenshire – 36%
  • Angus – 14%
  • Argyll and Bute – 18%
  • Clackmannanshire – 94%
  • Na h-Eileanan an lar – 1%
  • Dumfries and Galloway – 0%
  • Dundee City – 57%
  • East Ayrshire – 84%
  • East Dunbartonshire – 14%
  • East Lothian – 78%
  • East Renfrewshire – 50%
  • Edinburgh City – 80%
  • Falkirk – 42%
  • Fife – 92%
  • Glasgow City – 64%
  • Highland – 0%
  • Inverclyde – 10%
  • Midlothian – 73%
  • Moray – 0%
  • North Ayrshire – 92%
  • North Lanarkshire – 45%
  • Orkney – 0%
  • Perth and Kinross – 44%
  • Renfrewshire – 37%
  • Scottish Borders – 26%
  • Shetland Islands – 0%
  • South Ayrshire – 34%
  • South Lanarkshire – 40%
  • Stirling – 16%
  • West Dunbartonshire – 9%
  • West Lothian – 35%