SCOTLAND'S leading pollster has said it would be difficult for the UK Government to avoid another independence referendum within two or three years if the SNP secures a majority at the next Holyrood election.
Professor Sir John Curtice said Nicola Sturgeon's party is well ahead in the polls and precedent suggests a vote should be held if it wins a majority on a platform to hold one.
Speaking on BBC Newsnight, he said the Scottish Government has already delayed Indyref2 due to the coronavirus crisis, "and until we are in a post-pandemic world, it isn't going to happen".
He added: "But at the moment one has to say the SNP are well ahead in the opinion polls for next May.
"They certainly have a better than 50 per cent chance of being able to get an overall majority.
"And if that does happen, then I think it will be difficult to avoid another referendum within, shall we say, a two or three-year time period."
Prof Curtice pointed to the past examples of the 2014 referendum and the 2016 EU vote.
He said: "If the SNP do go into the Holyrood election saying 'We want another referendum just like 2014 – that's what you're voting for', and they get an overall majority in that election, then the truth is, the question the UK Government will have to face is, if that isn't adequate evidence that a referendum should be held then what would be?"
He said such an outcome would replicate the 2011 Holyrood result, "which for David Cameron was sufficient evidence that the SNP have the moral right to hold a referendum on independence".
It would also replicate the 2015 general election result, Prof Curtice said, when the Tories secured a majority and Mr Cameron announced a referendum on EU membership.
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