No trace: Concern as effectiveness of Scotland's coronavirus tracking cannot yet be demonstrated

A source when asked why it is taking so long said: "The National Contact Tracing Centre and Public Health Scotland is continuing to work with CMS [Case Management System] users across the territorial boards to improve data quality ahead of publication."

Last week scientists in a study warned the current testing and contact tracing south of the border was inadequate to prevent a second wave of coronavirus after schools reopened.

READ MORE: Unreliable 'name and shame' Covid-19 test tracking in Scots care homes abandoned

This is because the contact tracing system must reach at least 68 per cent of people who have tested positive for coronavirus, and their contacts, in order to contain the spread.

However, the current system south of the border at the time of the study reaches 50 per cent of contacts and only a small fraction of symptomatic cases are tested, according to researchers from University College London (UCL) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Scotland has turned to Ireland to help create its own contact tracing app to support NHS Scotland’s Test and Protect system. It is hoped to be up and running in the autumn

The researchers found the most recent data showed about 81% of positives being interviewed, about 81% of those reporting contacts and about 75% of those contacts being reached equating to 50% coverage.

The Scottish Government's Test and Protect policy kicked in on May 28 to ensure there was no further spread of Covid-19 and there has been increasing calls to ensure it is fit-for-purpose as the country opened up to tourists last month and before children return to school on Monday.

In Scotland, there is so far no track on the percentage of contacts treached that can be scrutinised by experts.

The Scottish Government is also unable to demonstrate the percentage of positive cases are followed up, or the percentage of those interviewed who report contacts.

It emerged on Friday that the vast majority of teachers in Scotland have indicated they retain serious safety concerns over the re-opening of schools from this week.

The interim results of a survey of 24,354 teachers opened earlier last week by Scotland’s largest teaching union EIS show that less that one in five are confident schools are currently safe.

Meanwhile concerns are growing that public health chiefs failed to make contact with many venues around Aberdeen that they were on a list of places linked to the Covid-19 cluster before an official announcement.

On Friday the number of cases linked to the cluster had risen to 101 as Nicola Sturgeon said she was "furious" at eight Aberdeen players who broke lockdown rules by visiting the city's Soul bar on Saturday.

Lockdown measures were reintroduced in the city on Wednesday as the number of cases in the cluster grew.

Details of the cluster which first emerged last Sunday, were initially linked to people who had visited the Hawthorn Bar on July 26.

READ MORE: Scotland turns to Ireland to create its own Covid contact tracing app

Many of the 28 hospitality venues where coronavirus positive customers frequented in the city and surrounding area said they had received no contact from track-and-trace officials, environmental health or NHS Grampian before being publicly linked to the cluster.

According to an analysis by the Scottish Conservatives only a quarter of the 2000 contact tracers promised by the the Scottish Government were in place at the start of June.

Alexander Burnett, the Scottish Conservatives' Aberdeenshire West MSP: "Questions must be answered about the operation of the track and trace system and the resources made available to support it."

Among those raising concerns was The Bobbin pub which said: "We have implemented extensive procedures to keep our staff and customers safe, including track and trace. We have not been contacted by the NHS Test and Trace team in relation to this outbreak and are therefore somewhat surprised to have been named."

It has told customers that if they had concerns about their previous attendance "we suggest you contact the NHS Test and Trace team directly as we are having to immediately close and will not be in a position to respond directly to enquiries".

It was a similar story at The Dutch Mill which in announcing its closure said it had kept all track and trace details for the past three weeks but had no contact from officials.

"Still to this day we have not had any contact whatsoever from the NHS track-and-trace or any official authorities to confirm positive cases of Covid-19 on our premises. We are very disappointed to have been put on the list of affected locations in Aberdeen since there has been no contact with us," they said.

McNastys, another hostelry on the list, confirmed it was closing its doors voluntarily in the wake of being named and said it was "most concerned" it had no contact from health officials.

A spokesman said: "Whilst we hear that track-and-trace procedures are robust and are working we along with many of the other venues listed have not see this occur in reality."

Aberdeen’s East End Social Club said after the list was published that it was awaiting contact on the Covid-19 case it identified over the weekend.

Brewdog Castlegate, O'Donoghues, the Stonehouse Pizza & Carvery, The Spider's Web, The Cock and Bull,and The Marine Hotel in Stonehaven also let it be known they had not been contacted about their link to the cluster.

Liam Kerr, the Scottish Conservatives' North East region MSP said: "The situation in Aberdeen has shown up very clear deficiencies in test and protect.

"This is a cornerstone of the SNP's test, track and isolate strategy to stop new cases."

The shadow justice secretary who is also deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives added: "Not enough tracers were recruited across Scotland and Grampian needed more reinforcements. It is not the NHS’ fault.

"Lessons must be learned from the experience in the north east.”

Last month the Herald revealed that tracking of how many coronavirus tests are being carried out on residents and staff at Scotland's care homes partly aimed at 'naming and shaming' underperforming NHS boards had been abandoned because it had become unreliable.

The Scottish Government stopped publishing the number of tests carried out on staff and residents saying that the data provided was considered "increasingly incomplete".

Papers seen by the Herald which raised further questions about the reliability of tracking of Covid-19 stated that information on whether homes had suspected cases was "incomplete" in some health board returns.

While the Scottish Government ramped up laboratory facilities to meet its target to have the ability to do 15,500 daily tests across Scotland to deliver Test and Protect in May - in the early stages by mid-July it was running at an average of 4404 checks a day.

Scotland was testing at little over a third of its capacity on the three days after the First Minister said the ability to screen had been ramped up in preparation for the national Test and Protect scheme going live on May 28.

A Scottish Government spokesman said: "The Scottish Government is committed to setting out as much data as possible about the COVID-19 pandemic to help inform and improve our response. We work closely with NRS Scotland [National Records of Scotland] and Public Health Scotland (PHS) to ensure the figures we publish are robust, and will publish significantly more information about the contact tracing process, including the percentage of positive cases followed up, time taken to reach individuals who had tested positive and time taken to reach their contacts. We expect to publish this data by the end of August.

It said that as of Thursday, in the current Aberdeen outbreak, 233 contacts had identified so far and all have been traced.