JULY 4th may be independence day in England, at least for hairdressers pubs and restaurants, but it won’t be in Scotland. So keep your hair on.

Nicola Sturgeon has kept the two metre rule despite howls of protest from the tourism and hospitality sector that this will wreck the Scottish economy. The First Minister insists she is putting safety first.

Scotland will not be following the “reckless” relaxation of lockdown pursued by heartless English Tories, who are only interested in the bottom line. Such at least is the political message the Scottish government hopes to convey.

In reality, it’s not entirely clear what is happening in Scotland about social distancing. Jason Leitch, the National Clinical Director, told BBC Radio yesterday that he expected the two metre rule to be relaxed very soon.

READ MORE: Scotland's two-metre social distancing rule will change, according to Jason Leitch

And John Swinney later announced that he is aiming for schools to go back to full time teaching on 11th August, which also suggests lockdown is not long for this world. The Labour MSP Iain Gray called this the “mother and father of ministerial climb-downs”.

Only last week Mr Swinney had been talking about a year of “blended learning” and no exams. This was under his assumption that the two metre rule would be still be adhered to over the summer and into the next school year.

His u-turn may also be a broad wink to the hospitality industry that Scotland will be following England in the not too distant future. They should plan for a one metre rule and not give up the ghost.

Let’s hope they get the message, because only 13% of pubs and 15% of restaurants say they can survive with two metre social distancing, according to the Scottish Tourism Alliance.

Ms Sturgeon says she is no longer bothered about the R number – the infection rate that she said last month was her guiding policy. The number of infections is now so small that R is largely meaningless.

So, if the disease is disappearing fast, and the infection rate is irrelevant, why is Scotland sticking with the two-metre rule at all? Are we following the science or not?

Nicola Sturgeon suggested yesterday that the scientific advice from SAGE may not entirely concur with Boris Johnson’s decision yesterday to liberate the nation from its Covid “hibernation”.

The former government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, chair of the “independent” SAGE group, is pretty sure that the official SAGE scientists are not on side. He says it is “far too soon” to ease the two-metre rule and that this will increase infections and lead to more deaths.

However, the science isn’t exactly rock solid on two metres. The World Health Organisation, which government critics often claim is a better advice-giver than SAGE, suggests a one metre rule is safe. WHO says that the risk of catching the disease falls by 80% over that distance.

China, Denmark and more importantly our nearest neighbour France are also in the one metre camp.

There is evidence that risk falls by at least a further 50% if you are standing two metres distant. But the risk of transmission depends on many factors: distance is only a part of it. Wearing masks, for example, almost certainly makes one metre equivalent to two. Outdoors, there seems little difference between one and two metres, and even indoors it’s no guarantee of immunity.

A study cited by the BBC from the Chinese city of Guangzhou, looked at a cluster of infections in a restaurant which was using the one metre rule. Half of the people who came down with the disease were discovered to have been sitting more than two metres away from the primary source of the infection.

READ MORE: Sturgeon prepares to accelerate Scotland's exit from lockdown - but two-metre rule stays for now

Air flow and ventilation seem to be a big factor. Bad ventilation can super spread this virus. On the other hand, sophisticated air conditioning, such as on aircraft with HEPA filters, might actually suppress Covid 19, especially if passengers are wearing masks.

The length of time you are in contact with a person with Covid-19 also seems to be a major factor. Just don’t hang around, is the message. Indeed, we’re told that if you want to hold a conversation with someone you should really stand back to back. Which would be most interesting at a conference or reception – assuming we ever have them again.

Professor Linda Bauld, of Public Health at Edinburgh University says politicians should “not to get too hung up” about distance. There is just too much going on to make this into an inviolable rule – like the R number which politicians obsessed about until recently.

This at any rate is the view of the UK government. Boris Johnson believes that the costs of relaxing the two-metre rule are far outweighed by the likely costs of not relaxing it. This isn’t just a financial calculus – putting profits before health.

Not allowing the schools to return to anything resembling normality is likely to have a significant impact on the long term health and wellbeing of young people. Similarly, not opening bars, restaurants and leisure activities means depriving many more young people of jobs and security – major factors in mental health.

It is simply not possible to conduct anything resembling normal life with a two metre rule. Public transport becomes unmanageable, tourism is undermined, shops and offices stay closed. We are a gregarious species and trying to keep two metres away from our fellow man and woman is extraordinarily difficult.

Children are not observing anything like a two metre rule in parks and gardens, as is only too obvious. It seems absurd therefore that they should be prevented from attending well managed and clean schools where the risk will be very much less.

READ MORE: CMO warns health boards not to assume Covid antibodies provide immunity 

Many parents were outraged at Mr Swinney’s “blended learning” plans, with some pupils getting as little as a day of teaching per week. They made their feelings very plain to the Deputy First Minister and he appears to have got the message.

Mr Swinney is now sounding more bullish than Boris Johnson about reopening the schools full time from August 11th. It may still be conditional on the Covid count continuing to fall but it’s a dramatic change in rhetoric.

One can only wonder at what deal he has struck with COSLA and the teaching unions.

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