WORLDWIDE, statistics on Covid-19 indicate that if you are male and over 70 you are substantially more likely to die from the infection.

That comes through clearly in the latest National Records of Scotland data which indicates that nearly three-quarters of coronavirus deaths have occurred in people aged 75 or older.

More than half (55 per cent) were in men.

At the beginning of this month, the World Health Organisation noted that this was an “important observation” for Europe which is home to 29 of the world’s 30 oldest populations (Japan is the other one).

It may go some way to explaining why Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, the UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden and Ireland – in that order – currently have the highest death rates per head of population in the world from coronavirus.

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Italy, which has the highest proportion of citizens over 80 in Europe (6.5 per cent), has recorded 408 deaths per million population compared to 150 per million in Ireland, which has the lowest percentage of over-80s in Europe (3.1%).

Spain, France and Belgium also have an above-average proportion of over-80s in their population.

Worldwide, more than half of all deaths from Covid have occurred in patients aged 80 or older.

However, there is clearly much more than just age at play. The UK’s population is comparatively younger: just 4.8% of our population is 80 or over compared with the 5.3% average for Europe, but so far our Covid mortality rate is 261 per million.

By contrast, Greece – where 6.3% of the population is over 80 – has recorded just 116 deaths in a population of nearly 11 million.

As the WHO also noted: “It is becoming clearer that the healthier you were before the pandemic plays a crucial role.”

Ageing itself is associated with decreased immune function, but older people are also more likely to be living with at least one chronic condition such as diabetes or high blood pressure.

It may be this correlation itself, rather than age alone, which is increasing this group’s vulnerability.

Beyond age, one risk factor of particular significance to Scotland is obesity.

Researchers in Italy were among the first to observe this trend, noting that when admissions to intensive care were analysed “co-morbidities play a significant role but not always – in one hospital, a high percentage of overweight and obese ICU patients was observed”.

This has been picked up again and again in Europe and also the United States.

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In the UK, the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) – which covers, England, Wales and Northern Ireland – found that three-quarters of critically ill Covid patients were overweight or obese.

Similarly, a study of 4,103 seriously ill Covid-19 patients by New York University showed that obesity was the second biggest risk factor after age for becoming seriously ill as a result of the virus.

This does not bode well for Scotland, which has the highest rates of obesity in Europe.

Currently Scotland’s death rate from the virus is around half that of England’s but this is probably due to factors including lower population density, lockdown having been implemented at an earlier stage in our epidemic curve, and perhaps even higher compliance with social distancing.

None of it can be put down to being a healthier population.

As well as obesity, Scotland has some of the highest rates of heart disease, diabetes, alcohol consumption and smoking in Europe – all linked to an increased mortality risk from Covid.

It underlines why a second wave could be particularly dangerous for Scotland.

Deprivation is also the great untapped statistic in this crisis.

At the weekend an anonymous ICU doctor in Scotland wrote that a disproportionate number of the Covid patients they had treated came from “lower-income families”.

As things stand, we do not have statistics to back that up but it would be likely for two reasons.

First, like age, deprivation tends to correspond with high rates of chronic disease, as well as obesity, smoking and heavier alcohol intakes.

Second, people from these backgrounds are more likely to do jobs which might expose them to the virus, such as being hospital cleaners, home carers, bus and taxi drivers, or supermarket workers.

It may be no coincidence that Greater Glasgow and Clyde, known for its deeply ingrained deprivation, has by far the highest death rate from Covid in Scotland.

Ethnicity also overlaps with deprivation, virus-exposed occupations, and some health factors such as higher rates of diabetes in people with South Asian heritage.

In Scotland we still have none of that data either.

Beyond age, we really do not know who is bearing the brunt of Covid in Scotland.

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