Nicola Sturgeon insisted Scotland is ready to cope with a major outbreak of coronavirus as the UK experienced its biggest single-day spike in cases.
The number of people who have tested positive for the virus rose to 87, including two new Scottish cases in Grampian and Ayrshire.
One of the patients had recently returned from northern Italy and the second had contracted it from contact with another infected person, though authorities confirmed that this was not the Tayside case confirmed on Sunday.
It brings the Scottish total to three. The First Minister said there could be “many more” in the days ahead.
Speaking during a visit to an NHS 24 centre at the Golden Jubilee National Hospital in Clydebank, West Dunbartonshire, she said: “The reassurance for the public is that all appropriate steps are being taken.”
As part of the efforts to contain the virus, Ms Sturgeon said contact tracing was being carried out for the two new patients to “identify all the people they have been in close contact with” for follow-up testing.
While the Scottish Government has predicted that as many as 80 per cent of Scots could be struck by the virus, the First Minister said this was the “worst-case scenario”.
She said: “People right now are hearing big numbers, they are scary numbers and it is important we continue to put these in context. These are worst-case scenarios.
“Why do we have worstcase scenarios? So we are properly planning for whatever we might be facing in this. But those worst-case scenarios are not a forecast of what will necessarily come to pass.”
Ms Sturgeon added: “It is also the case that whatever the number of people who might end up getting coronavirus might be, the vast majority will have mild symptoms, it will be like a cold or a mild case of flu. “It will be a smaller number who develop complications and need hospitalisation and that happens with seasonal flu every year.
“It is also the case that if you are hearing big numbers that is not about people all being affected at the one time, as with flu these things happen over a period of time.
“But the biggest reassurance of all is that Governments – not just in Scotland but across the UK and globally – have been preparing for this for some time and all the appropriate steps have been taken to try as far as possible to mitigate and minimise the impact coronavirus will have.”
Ms Sturgeon said the “most important thing” the public can do is to wash their hands regularly.
The Scottish Government said on Monday that a “reasonable worst-case scenario” could see 50 to 80% of the population contract Covid-19, the name for the new strain of coronavirus.
On the basis of current World Health Organisation data, which shows that around five per cent of people with the virus become critically ill – half of them fatally – that would equate to around 217,000 people being hospitalised in Scotland and more than 100,000 deaths.
However, Professor Hugh Pennington, one of Scotland’s leading infections experts, told The Herald that this was “not a realistic estimate”.
Mr Pennington, emeritus professor of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, said the predictions were based on a scenario of widespread human-to-human transmission where “we just let the virus run” without any attempt to contain it.
“It means that everything that could go wrong does go wrong, with absolutely no containment measures in place,” he said.
A dedicated NHS 24 helpline set up to manage coronavirus received nearly a thousand calls in the first 48 hours after Scotland’s first case was confirmed on Sunday night.
NHS 24 director of service delivery Steph Philips said: “Over the last 10 days we have received more than 3,000 calls on coronavirus to our helpline and those numbers are increasing.”
Anyone worried about symptoms or possible exposure to the virus can call the helpline on 0800 028 2816.
Meanwhile, Health Secretary Jeane Freeman said the Scottish Government is looking at “what more we can do now in order to create additional headroom inside the health service”.
Consideration is also being given to how to free up more hospital beds and increase capacity in areas of the NHS such as high oxygen therapy, she said. Ventilation in intensive care and high-dependency units will be the main treatment for the most seriously ill. Frail elderly and people with diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart or lung problems are most at risk.
Meanwhile, residents at a sheltered housing complex in Kilmarnock, East Ayrshire, were advised to stay in their homes “as a precaution” after a suspected case of coronavirus.
Chris Milburn, customer services director for site manager Hanover Scotland, said: “On Tuesday, a resident at one of our developments in Ayrshire who had recently returned from south-east Asia reported feeling unwell.
“Because the well-being of our residents and staff is our prime concern, our site manager immediately contacted the NHS and the resident was taken to hospital for tests.”
In Glasgow, a 49-year-old shopper was spotted wearing a protective face mask and gloves – despite official guidance that it does not prevent infection, but can help reduce onward spread in people who have already developed a cough.
The man, Frank, said: “It is only a matter of time before it’s in Glasgow. “Some people tell me I’m worrying about nothing and the mask won’t do any good, but every little helps.”
- READ MORE: New cases confirmed in Ayrshire and Grampian
It came as the UK recorded its biggest day-on-day increase in coronavirus cases, up 32 to 87.
Three of the new cases recorded in England were passed on in the UK, raising fears that community transmission is escalating.
England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, said: “At this point in time we think it is likely, not definite, that we will move into onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK.”
He added that a very large epidemic, “will put very high pressure on the NHS”, and there could be “several weeks which could be very difficult” for the NHS and wider society.
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