The economic harm of Brexit is essentially caused by three things. First, the destruction of a single market operating with harmonised regulations and allowing the free movement of capital, goods and people. Second, the creation of uncertainty - what will happen next? What is the impact on my business? Third, a divided nation in which two roughly similar size groups of people want different things.
These three factors harm our economy; they work against activity and investment, diminish employment prospects and reduce the tax revenues we need to fund public services.
Each of them - and actually several more - can be applied to Independence for Scotland. The issue divides Scotland, it would break the highly effective UK single market by creating an economic border between Scotland and our vital English market which is twice as important to us as the rest of the world and it would create uncertainty.
Scottish business does not need uncertainty, division or economic pygmyism from the Scottish Government. What it needs is pragmatism, co-operation and stability.
A bit less than half of the Scottish electorate seems to want Independence but what does that actually mean? Most of us would like to be in the EU - a good idea in principle but a very bad idea if, as it would, it created economic barriers between England and Scotland. A clear majority of us don’t want to join the Euro but in time, if we re-joined the EU, we would have to.
Do we want a Scottish Airforce or a Scottish DVLA? I doubt it. Do we think the cost involved in setting up our own comprehensive bureaucracy is a good thing or a needless expense reducing our ability to pay for schools and hospitals? Would we enjoy being told what to do by politicians in Brussels any more than by those in London?
When confronted by what Independence means in terms of hard specific realities people don’t actually like it very much. Last time the SNP were the exciting challenger now they are the failing incumbent - they would have a difficult selling job.
There are, however, additional policy areas where it would be a good thing for Scotland to have more authority. If only the SNP would give up their divisive drive for “Independence” and actually engage with the Scottish electorate and the UK Government to build a consensus around a shared vision, so much could be possible.
Take for example immigration. If there was a single bad reason why the pro-EU cause was lost it was probably immigration. In parts of England the pace and scale of immigration has been such that local services have struggled to cope and local people feel disadvantaged and displaced. Yet immigration, which brings young dynamic people to join our society, is a good thing. The problem in Scotland is not that we have too many immigrants but that we have too few. Our society is aging and the ratio of dependants to workers will, within a few decades, become dangerously high in terms of being able to afford good quality public services.
What if, instead of trying to constantly kick sand in the face of the UK Government and bleat that everything it does is an outrage or that Scotland has been ignored, the Scottish Government developed a focused agenda of additional powers - control of immigration being one, control of the railway infrastructure being another - which it would be sensible if we could manage in Scotland. There is no reason why the powers of the Scottish Parliament could not be increased over time to build a better Britain which Scotland is genuinely comfortable being in. That would be a happier and more prosperous course for all of Scotland and its people. It’s time to change the record Nicola.
Guy Stenhouse is a Scottish financial sector veteran who wrote formerly as Pinstripe.
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