Yes vote 'would be more disruptive after Brexit than in 2014'

Instead, the economic proposition for independence would “be more radical on issues such as currency, customs and fiscal policy” than five years ago, the thinktank said.

Ms Sturgeon has previously refused to rule out customs checks if Brexit and independence combined to create a hard border between Scotland and England, one country inside Europe and the other out.

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It comes as Ms Sturgeon is due to address MSPs today for the first time since the SNP won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the election.

She will repeat her demand for a second independence referendum in 2020, saying last week was a “watershed moment for Scotland” that Boris Johnson cannot ignore.

With senior figures in Scottish Labour saying at the weekend that the SNP’s election win was a mandate for Indyref2, the First Minister will also appeal for cross-party support in her goal. 

She said: “The SNP’s mandate for an independence referendum is stronger than any mandate Boris Johnson claims for his Brexit deal. 

“He asserts a mandate to take the whole of the UK, including Scotland, out of the EU, on a lower share of seats and votes then the SNP won in Scotland. 

“We are facing a Conservative government which Scotland did not vote for and which presents a real danger to our country.

“The Scottish Parliament has a duty to protect the values that people in Scotland voted for.” 

A Scottish Government paper setting out the case for Indyref2 will follow later in the week. MSPs are also due to finalise the legislation paving the way for another referendum on Thursday.

Ms Sturgeon has said she wants the Prime Minister to follow the process for the 2014 referendum by granting a Section 30 order, which would temporarily devolve the power to hold a vote to Holyrood.

That would ensure the referendum was immune to legal challenge.

However, former SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie yesterday suggested the Scottish Government might hold “a referendum” unilaterally, albeit not a legally watertight one.

Five years ago, Ms Sturgeon and Alex Salmond made continuity a key theme of the Yes campaign, using the word 31 times in their independence White Paper. 
Besides “continuity of public services”, the prospectus said keeping the pound would “provide continuity and certainty for business and individuals”, and there would be “continuity of effect” when an independent Scotland joined the EU, so its status mirrored that inside the UK.

But in a new economic commentary reflecting on the election result, the Fraser of Allander said Brexit had upended those previous arguments.

Despite Mr Johnson’s denials in the election, his Brexit deal means customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland because of the differing regimes either side of the Irish Sea.

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If an independent Scotland joined the EU, and the rest of the UK was outside it, this would likewise create trade and border issues not considered in 2014, as the open border with England would become an external EU border.

Professor Graeme Roy, the Director of the Institute, said: “The outcome of last week’s election is only likely to intensify the debate over the prospects for a second independence referendum. For some, Brexit represents a ‘material change in circumstance’. For others, ‘once in generation’ still holds.

“Many of the economic debates will be similar to those in 2014. But there are likely to be important differences. 

“Firstly, back in 2014 there was a clear choice between a relatively stable ‘status quo’ – albeit with the promise of more devolved powers – and independence. 

“But with Brexit, the debate will be set against the backdrop of economic change and uncertainty whatever the people of Scotland decide.

“Voters will also want to be much more mindful about what both sides can credibly say about their so-called Plan B than was the case in either 2014 or the EU Referendum in 2016.

“The wider economic context has undoubtedly changed. Some aspects – such as the sharp fall in oil prices and weakening of Scotland’s relative fiscal position – pose a challenge to those arguing in favour of independence. 

“Against that, Brexit throws up economic challenges for those in favour of the Union. 

“Scotland may face a stark choice between aligning to the EU trading bloc or the UK bloc, with implications for trade and migration. 
“Perhaps most significantly, many of those on the Yes side in 2014 argued that there would be a degree of continuity between the then status quo and independence.  The plan was to retain sterling, share financial regulation and keep an open border. 

“But if the case for a second referendum is now framed around Scotland pro-actively taking a different path to the UK, then it necessarily follows that the economic proposition for independence will need to be more radical on issues such as currency, customs and fiscal policy than in 2014.”

In October, Ms Sturgeon refused to rule out infrastructure and customs checks if Brexit was combined with Scottish independence in Europe.

Her Brexit Secretary Michael Russell also admitted the EU could impose a hard border, saying it would be “governed by our membership of the EU”, not settled domestically.

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The Institute’s commentary also warned of continued weak Scottish economic growth, with forecasts of 1.3 per cent for 2020 and 1.4% for 2021 and 2022, although these assumed Ms Johnson could deliver on his promise of a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020.

Speaking ahead of her parliamentary statement, the First Minister said: “This election result is a watershed moment for Scotland. People were faced with a clear and distinct choice, and they made their verdict clear - they have rejected a Tory government, said no to Brexit and endorsed the proposition that they should be given a say on their own future.

“That position is increasingly winning support from across the political spectrum, including from senior and prominent members of the Scottish Labour Party, who may not yet back independence but who recognise the fundamental democratic principle which is now at stake.

“In 1992 when we were also facing the prospect of a fourth Tory government with no mandate in Scotland there was a coming together of parties, communities and civic Scotland.

“That resulted in the establishment of this Parliament, which has achieved much. But this new wave of Brexiteer Tories with a mission to reshape Scotland and the UK in their right-wing image presents a new danger – one that very few would have predicted at the dawn of devolution. So I hope in the coming days and weeks we will see a similar coming together around the idea of Scotland’s right to choose.” 

The reference to the early 1990s relates to the Scottish Constitutional Convention, which in fact pre-dated the 1992 election and which the SNP boycotted because it was unwilling to consider independence. 

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford said his party’s 48 MPs would “fulfil the role of the strong, united and focussed opposition the country needs - holding this extreme Tory government to account in the face of Brexit, austerity cuts, the threat to our NHS, and the climate crisis.

“With other parties subsumed by internal divisions and acrimony, the SNP will provide real and effective opposition - challenging Boris Johnson’s devastating plans every step of the way.” 

The framework legislation which pave the way for Indyref2, the Referendums (Scotland) Bill is due to pass through its third and final stage at Holyrood on Thursday.

Mr Russell said it would be a “big test” of whether the Unionist parties, who voted against the Bill last month, were listening to the people of Scotland and respecting what they had said.

He said: “On Thursday we have the final stage of the Referendums Bill. That will give the other parties the chance to say whether they back democracy or not.

“In these circumstances, Labour, if it is genuine now about changing its stance, it can vote for that Bill and we’ll move forward, and they will show that they democracy.”

He also said Mr Johnson’s position was “anti-democratic”.

Mr Hosie, the SNP’s trade spokesman at Westminster, suggested the Scottish Government might hold “a referendum” of a non-legal variety to gauge public opinion. 

He told Sky News: “We don’t need a Section 30 order to have a referendum, but the Section order is important because it then commits both sides to accept the result.

“We would argue far better to have a fully constitutional, fully legal and fully accepted referendum through that transfer of power.”

Responding to his comments, Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, said: “The 2014 referendum has been described by Nicola Sturgeon as the ‘gold standard’, and we were promised the result would be respected.

“So why has Stewart Hosie refused to respect the result?

“Trying to get separation through the back door would be simply unacceptable for the people of Scotland.

“Scotland’s future is already in Scotland’s hands and barely a quarter of Scots want a divisive second Scexit referendum next year.

“The majority of people voted last week for parties that support Scotland remaining in the UK. 

“Leaving the UK is not the answer to the challenges we are facing; it would be the cause of more.”

Tory MSP Michelle Ballantyne said Mr Johnson would respond to any Section 30 request by refusing it “at present, probably for the lifetime of this parliament”.

She said: “He’s going to explain very clearly to Ms Sturgeon why that is. 

“We are about to leave the EU and Scotland needs to be in a position, if it is to ever have another referendum, to make a rational decision about whether or not staying in the Union is the right thing or leaving is the right thing. 

“To do that we have to complete Brexit first, things have to settle down again.”

Asked why people couldn’t make a rational decision during the Brexit process, she said: “Because nobody has any idea yet in reality what it’s going to be like. 

“There’s a lot of talk and the SNP will paint it as a very black picture. I and many of my colleagues don’t believe it will be.

“If is fair and incumbent on any government who suggest that it’s going to be stronger for Scotland to be clear about what people are choosing from, not just their personal assessment of it.”
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