Scottish Conservatives 'may benefit from Alex Salmond trial'

Scottish Tory insiders have told The Herald Conservative MPs have directly lobbied Mr Johnson, urging him to steer clear of a December election at all costs and, ideally, a winter poll altogether should opposition parties at Westminster fail to bring down his Government early.

“No one wants an election in the run-up to Christmas. People are just not interested at that time of year. It would be much better to hold one in the New Year, preferably in the spring,” said one Scottish MP.

READ MORE: Scottish Conservatives back vote after Alex Salmond trial

All but one of the 13 Scottish Tory seats, from the borders to Aberdeenshire, are in a rural area.

“A lot of my constituency is inaccessible for much of the winter. We have to have the election in the spring; 100 per cent,” declared one backbencher.

Another noted: “People don’t vote when it’s cold and dark. A winter poll could be very bad for us in Scotland.”

However, some party insiders mentioned another reason why a spring poll would be preferable from a Scottish Conservative viewpoint: the Salmond court case due early in 2020.

One high-ranking Tory source told The Herald: “Irrespective of the outcome of the trial, the Nationalists will be in turmoil.”

A similar point has been made by Labour insiders, who fear their party could take a major hit, potentially retaining just one of their seven Scottish seats; Ian Murray’s in Edinburgh South.

One source explained: “The SNP are champing at the bit to have an election now but that’s only because the timing suits them. We’d rather go long because it would improve our chances of doing well in Scotland.

"The best outcome for us would be to go next year during the Alex Salmond trial,” he added.

Scottish Conservatives believe that whenever the election comes that in Scotland it will be mainly a fight between the Tories and the Nationalists based once again on the issue of the Union versus independence.

They believe Labour will fall down a constitutional crack while the Liberal Democrats, on the back of their ultra-Remain position, will pick up no more than three extra seats north of the border.

But Tory MPs in Scotland are jittery in light of the Brexit uncertainty; only one, John Lamont, who represents Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, has a majority over 10,000: 11,060.

Last month, a YouGov opinion poll suggested the Conservatives would lose all 13 Scottish seats in a snap election; every one would go to the Nationalists.

The snapshot pointed to a 14 per cent drop in the Tory Party's vote share in the seats it currently holds; down from 44 per cent to 30. While that for the SNP is predicted to rise from 34 per cent to 42, leading to suggestions Nicola Sturgeon’s party could be eyeing a landslide victory akin to that of 2015 when the SNP won all but three of the 59 Scottish seats.

During an animated performance at the Conservative conference’s Scottish reception on Sunday night, Mr Johnson fully recognised it was the election of a tranche of Scottish Tories to Westminster in 2017, which had kept Jeremy Corbyn out of Downing St.

One MP said it would be foolish if the PM, who has continually highlighted the fundamental importance of the 300-year-old Union, did anything to undermine the progress which the Scottish Tories had made under their former leader Ruth Davidson based, largely, on defending the United Kingdom from the Nationalist threat.

READ MORE: Boris Johnson attacked over plan to sideline Nicola Sturgeon

He explained that the PM should not be attracted to the prospect of winning enough seats in England to form a Commons majority at the expense of sacrificing ones in Scotland.

“We have worked really hard to build up support over recent years to get to where we are now; I’m sure Boris will not want to throw that away,” said one Scottish backbencher, adding: “He is, after all, the Minister for the Union.”