Paul Hutcheon: In indyref2, the stakes would be so much higher for Unionists

After a bruising campaign, during which he and his colleagues were dismissed as “red Tories”, I was expecting to hear satisfaction in his voice, perhaps even triumphalism. But he was downbeat. I asked why and his response still lingers: “This is the beginning, not the end.”

And so it has proven. The indyref, negotiated between the UK and Scottish Governments after the SNP won a Holyrood landslide in 2011, was another chapter in the country’s constitutional journey, not the finale.

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"Base camp isn't far off the summit now,” Alex Salmond said, after Yes won nearly 45% of the vote.

It has become almost a cliche to note that elements of the indyref campaign provided a foretaste of the Brexit referendum two years later, but all cliches contain an element of truth.

In both referenda, a big chunk of the population ignored dire economic warnings and opted for the unknown. On both occasions, the same voters did not flinch from rejecting a political union and poking an old order in the eye.

While the Yes campaign was in no way comparable to the malevolence of many elements of Vote Leave, the indyref also showcased the nastier side of politics ... on both sides. The media, particularly the BBC, was baited by an unsavoury minority, political opponents were intimidated on the street, and social media was often a cesspit.

But the indyref was also a life-affirming experience for many Scots. An 84.6% turnout – the highest of any referendum in UK history – was astonishing. Tens of thousands of people who had never shown an interest in politics were now switched on. Scotland has one of the most politically engaged citizenries in the world.

Although independence and Brexit are fuelled by nationalism, one key difference separates both causes. Support for leaving the EU is disproportionately backed by the 60-plus age group, and opposed by the younger generation. Independence is hugely popular among the socially liberal 18-30-year-olds and resisted by older, wealthier voters. The demographics are not the same.

A political realignment was the inevitable consequence of the referendum, with the SNP reaping the rewards. Independence used to be a niche interest for 20% of voters, but it became the main dividing line in Scottish politics. Your view on the constitution now often determined your vote in elections.

The SNP was on the losing side on September 18, but the Nationalists quickly became the main winner. Party membership shot up to 120,000 and they won an incredible 56 seats at the 2015 general election. It was a sign of the SNP’s dominance that falling back to 35 seats two years later was portrayed as a failure.

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The indyref, paradoxically, was also good for the Scottish Tories, who over the previous two decades had secured the patent of irrelevant also-rans. Just as the plebiscite served as a political awakening for nationalists, so too did it lead to a revival in unionism. The threat of independence is the Scottish Tories’ political meal ticket.

Scottish Labour, already in decline prior to the indyref, were the main losers from the campaign. The conventional narrative is that Labour’s participation in Better Together, alongside the Tories, hurt them electorally, but this is a flimsy argument.

If Labour had campaigned separately for a No vote, the Yes side’s lethal "red Tory" insult would simply have been adapted. The indyref was always going to be a disaster for Labour. Once a lion, the party is now a mouse.

The main lesson from 2014 was confirmation, if it was needed, that a referendum does not resolve binary constitutional issues. The 1975 vote on joining the European Communities fuelled a bitter, 40-year debate. The devolution referendum in 1997 led to an endless debate on Holyrood’s powers. The same is true of the indyref and the Brexit melodrama.

And therein lies a challenge for Nicola Sturgeon. A second independence referendum looks likely and the bookies are predicting a Yes vote, but the First Minister should be mindful of the state of Scotland after another referendum and the effect a Yes vote would have.

I would never minimise the feelings of disappointment felt by Yessers five years ago, but within days there was talk of a second referendum. They battled on and reframed the debate so that the indyref was the first forty-five minutes, not the second. The pro-independence side fell short, but they did not lose their country on September 18, 2014.

The stakes are much higher for the Unionist side. A Yes vote would never be overturned; there would be no re-run five years later. Hundreds of thousands of voters would feel like the UK had been broken up, and that their identity had been shattered.

It would be the heartbreak of a lifetime for these people. Independence be may on its way, but victory will come at a cost.