A GOVERNMENT report on Operation Yellowhammer was leaked in the Sunday Times with warnings of food, fuel and medicine shortages, as well as rising costs in social care and a hard border in Ireland if Britain crashes out of the EU without a withdrawal agreement.
What is Operation Yellowhammer?
Operation Yellowhammer is the government’s code name for the wide-ranging research carried out to assess the impact on Britain’s infrastructure if we crash out of the EU.
The contingency plan compiled by the Cabinet Office covers 12 “areas of risk” including healthcare, transport, food supplies and movement of people and goods across borders.
Although it reads like a worst-case scenario, the file actually details the most likely outcomes including disruption and delays at ports, airports and borders; fresh food shortages; petrol import tariffs and unrest across the UK.
What else was the paper predicting?
The government expects up to three month delays at ports; the return of a hard Irish border; increased immigration checks; medical supplies that are “vulnerable to severe extended delays” and vulnerable groups hit by food price hikes.
European vessels sailing in British waters on Brexit Day could find they are sailing illegally, while rising costs in social care could cause significant problems within weeks.
Gibraltar is expected to face up to four-hour delays at the border with Spain which are thought to “adversely impact” its economy.
A senior Whitehall source told the paper: “This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case.”
How will this affect us?
The price of food is likely to soar while petrol import tariffs, set at 0% by the government will “inadvertently” lead to the closure of two oil refineries, around 2,000 job losses and disruptions to fuel availability.
Public protests and counter-protests are expected to take place across the UK sparking concern over police resources.
What has the government’s response been?
Boris Johnson blamed the leak on a Remain-backing “former minister” which has led to speculation that former chancellor of the exchequer Philip Hammond was behind it.
A source at Number 10 said the dossier was “deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders”.
The source added: “Those obstructing preparation are no longer in Government.”
Michael Gove, the Cabinet minister responsible for no-deal planning, insisted the document represented “what the very, very worst situation would be” and that steps were being taken to mitigate the predictions.
How likely is a no-deal Brexit?
With Mr Johnson’s “do or die” pledge to leave in October, anything could happen.
Up to 40 Tory MPs are reportedly backing a bid led by Mr Hammond and former justice secretary David Gauke to block a no-deal Brexit. Earlier this month Green MP Caroline Lucas called for an all-female emergency cabinet to do the same.
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