Splits over Indyref2 set to hamper bid to halt a hard Brexit

It emerged yesterday that the campaign will target about 100 marginal seats if MPs force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to go to the country by October 31.

Campaigners said they would pour resources into about 50 seats to help remove no-deal MPs and into about 50 more to defend Remain MPs vulnerable to a challenge.

South of the Border, the plan would focus on persuading Labour supporters to vote LibDem and vice versa, according to which party had the best chance of success.

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In Scotland, the Conservatives would be defending 13 seats, nine with majorities below 5,000, all won by the SNP in 2015 but several held by the LibDems before then.

They include Stirling, the UK’s third most marginal Tory seat, where Stephen Kerr’s majority is 148.

The SNP’s Pete Wishart would be trying to fend off a Conservative challenge in Perth & North

Perthshire after his majority was cut to just 21 in 2017.

In the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election last week, a tactical voting pact by Remain parties helped the LibDems win the Tory seat, while the Brexit Party split the Leave vote.

The LibDems’ gain reduced Mr Johnson’s parliamentary majority to one, increasing speculation about an early election to overcome the Westminster impasse on Brexit.

However, the independence issue could thwart any similar pact in Scotland because the Tories would play the Unionist card.

A source at the People’s Vote campaign said: “Scotland is difficult because we need to be sure that if we polarise the contest between the Tories and the SNP it delivers the results the campaign wants.

“That is, it sees the Tories defeated rather than letting them present themselves as the best-placed Unionist candidate to defeat the SNP. So we need to research and test further on this.

“There isn’t the same issue in Wales because the independence debate is not so polarising.

“But we will be pragmatic and take soundings from our supporters in all parties on this.”

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is due to give her thoughts on the developing situation in an appearance at the Edinburgh fringe today with the LBC presenter and political commentator Iain Dale. Mr Johnson added to speculation about an election by announcing a one-off £1.8 billion boost for NHS England yesterday – money critics dismissed as derisory, given its repairs backlog.

The cash will result in £180 million extra cash for Scotland via the Barnett formula.

Mr Johnson also said NHS pensions would be reformed to end the UK-wide problem of consultants cutting back their hours – adding to waiting times – to avoid pension-related tax bills.

An alliance to oust Tory MPs would threaten Ruth Davidson’s leadership of the Scottish Tories, as it could wipe out most of the gains her party made in 2017.

But tribal divisions among Remain parties are working in her favour.

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On Saturday, Orkney & Shetland MP Alastair Carmichael, the LibDem whip at Westminster, was asked by the BBC if his party would step aside for SNP candidates in a Remain alliance.

He said: “No we wouldn’t and for one very simple reason: the SNP are one side of another fundamental nationalist argument which is about Scottish independence. So no, we wouldn’t be able to work with them.”

The SNP seized on the comment to hark back to Jo Swinson serving as a minister in the Tory-LibDem Coalition.

MP Neil Gray said: “Jo Swinson is showing her true colours and proving yet again that the LibDems simply cannot be trusted by completely ruling out working with us but keeping the door open to another disastrous coalition with the Tories.

“It seems the LibDems are happy to jump back into bed with the extreme right Tory party but not work with us to ensure that the livelihoods of citizens across the UK are not destroyed by a disastrous Brexit.”

Neil Gray

A Scottish Labour spokesman said: “Only Labour will ensure no-deal is avoided. The only way to get a Labour government is to vote Labour. We will not be doing deals with the SNP, LibDems or anyone else. We are fighting for a Labour Government, no ifs and no buts.”

Tory party chairman James Cleverly insisted the Conservatives would not “initiate” a general election. Asked on Sky’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday if there will be a general election, Mr Cleverly said: “There isn’t. We are not going to initiate a general election.”

It was also reported that if Mr Johnson was forced into an election by a no-confidence vote in September, he could hold it on October 31 or later, allowing a no-deal Brexit by default.

The Sunday Telegraph said the PM’s top aide, Dominic Cummings, had told colleagues it was now too late for MPs to use a no-confidence vote to block Brexit.

“If there is a no-confidence vote in September or October, we’ll call an election for after October 31 and leave anyway,” Mr Cummings said.

However, rebel Tory MP Dominic Grieve said Mr Cummings was a “master of misinformation” and losing a no-confidence vote created a 14-day window to form a new government.

Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth also rejected Mr Cummings’s analysis.

“There will be opportunities for us when parliament returns in September to stop no deal,” he told Sky.

The Cabinet manual also says that, during an election campaign, the government should not take decisions which would bind its successor.

This would seem to rule out Mr Johnson engineering a no-deal exit.

However, the Sunday Times reported the PM might carry on regardless, as much of the law in this area is untested, and only he can ask the EU to postpone Brexit or revoke Article 50.

Ian Blackford, the SNP Westminster leader, yesterday asked all opposition parties bar the DUP to a cross-party summit on how to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

He said: “Let’s see what happens in September,” he said. “Because the government will have to bring forward appropriate legislation to prepare for this Brexit no-deal exit that they want. And we will use all the means available to us, working across the parties – because we know there are plenty of Tory MPs who want to block no deal as well, particularly a lot of those who Boris Johnson, perhaps rather foolishly in retrospect, sacked from the cabinet two weeks ago.

“We’re working with MPs across the House of Commons, and we will work to stop no deal.”

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said the leaders of the EU27 should give their chief negotiator a free hand or a no-deal Brexit was “coming down the tracks”.

Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay

In a newspaper article, Mr Barclay said Michel Barnier had to be given the latitude to rewrite the withdrawal agreement and remove the “anti-democratic” Irish backstop.

Mr Barclay said the EU negotiator, who called abolishing the backstop “unacceptable”, told him last week he was bound by instructions from the European Commission and EU27 leaders.

Mr Barclay said “political realities” had changed, with 61 per cent of MEPs newly elected in May, and Mr Johnson in Downing Street vowing to deliver Brexit “do or die” in three months.

He wrote: “Such a fundamental shift illustrates the need for a change of approach Mr Barnier needs to urge EU leaders to consider this if they too want an agreement, to enable him to negotiate in a way that finds common ground with the UK. Otherwise, no-deal is coming down the tracks.”

Meanwhile, His message was undermined by an Education Department memo was leaked warning that schools might close, food could run short and exams may be disrupted by no-deal, particularly in Kent because of travel chaos at ports.

Tory MSP Murdo Fraser said the SNP must ringfence the £180m in Barnett consequential for NHS Scotland, something Scottish ministers already do.