A no-deal Brexit could trigger “consumer panic”, food shortages and an increased security threat within a fortnight, according to a leaked Government document.
The slide, prepared for ministers and obtained by Sky News, says the pound could fall in the first month while Northern Ireland may face law and order challenges.
Marked “official sensitive” and titled “What this could look like on the ground”, it also warns that UK nationals in the European Union could lose access to services and residence rights within the first 24 hours.
READ MORE: In 2014 I hoped Yes would fail. Now I've moved to Scotland, I'm not so sure
The leak yesterday came as Boris Johnson’s Government ramped up its rhetoric over leaving the EU by the 31 October deadline, whether a new deal is brokered or not.
And it was revealed as Chancellor Sajid Javid announced £2.1 billion of funding to prepare for no-deal. Bank of England governor Mark Carney also warned that a deal-less break would be an “instantaneous shock” on the economy and cautioned the pound would fall, inflation would rise and GDP would slow.
A second leaked document, this one from the Cabinet Office and seen by The Guardian, warned of a risk of “panic buying” exacerbating food supply disruption as well as a threat of civil disorder. Sky reported that its leaked slide was prepared in the final weeks of Theresa May’s tenure as prime minister.
PA understands the document was shown to ministers but not signed off by the Government, meaning it was not official policy. But the worst case scenarios – broken down into first day, first fortnight and first month categories – also included potential friction at sea between UK and EU fishing vessels. Within 24 hours, it says cross- border agriculture trade in Northern Ireland “virtually stops” as other trade “slows”.
READ MORE: Boris Johnson's nuclear no-deal preparations could backfire
In the first fortnight column, it details: “Potential consumer panic and food shortages, even in areas which are not directly affected at the border.” And it warns of a “possible increased risk of serious organised crime including people smuggling and illegal migration”.
The first month could also see heightened policing resources becoming “unsustainable”, as operational gaps in security “continue to emerge”.
A No 10 spokeswoman said: “We do not comment on leaked documents.”
Hilary Benn, the Labour MP who chairs the Brexit select committee, said the leak exposed the Government’s “utterly irresponsible” position.
You almost have to pinch yourself to remember that this is the Government’s own assessment of the implications of Boris Johnson’s stated No Deal Brexit policy. Utterly irresponsible. https://t.co/IeeODqK08z
— Hilary Benn (@hilarybennmp) August 1, 2019
“You almost have to pinch yourself to remember that this is the Government’s own assessment of the implications of Boris Johnson’s stated No Deal Brexit policy,” he tweeted.
It comes after the government announced an extra £2.1billion of funding to prepare for a no-deal Brexit – doubling the amount it had set aside.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel