Alan Roden: The great divide that could decide Boris Johnson's fate

Nor does the fact that he has appointed Vote Leave mastermind Dominic Cummings as his election strategist. Or the fact that he appointed an election Cabinet designed to win back Brexit Party voters. And what do the bookies know anyway?

But let’s just pretend that an election really is coming. After all, it might not even be in Mr Johnson’s control. Last week’s Cabinet bloodbath felt like a change of government, yet one thing hasn’t changed: the Parliamentary arithmetic.

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The Prime Minister’s majority with his DUP allies is wafer-thin and is likely to be eroded even further with a by-election in Wales this week. That means there is still a majority of MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit.

Can an election take place before the Brexit deadline of October 31 to change the arithmetic? It’s tight, but possible. The Commons returns on September 3, and if Jeremy Corbyn lodges a motion of no confidence it could be passed as early as the following day. That triggers a 14-day window to form a new government before an election is called with a short five-week campaign culminating in Britain going to the polls just a week before Halloween.

But it’s more likely that any election would be held in November, and custom dictates that a sitting government should not enact any big policy decisions during the campaign period – such as, say, leaving the European Union without a deal.

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is reported to believe, however, there is no legal basis to prevent the Prime Minister doing just that, even if an election campaign is in full flow.

Already, legal action is due to be launched by a cross-party group of Scottish MPs to ensure Mr Johnson cannot suspend parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit. Could Britain’s fate ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court? If Brexit is going to make most people poorer, it seems lawyers are certainly going to get richer.

A raft of new opinion polls published yesterday produced the expected ‘Boris bounce’ of up to ten points, although that is nothing like the 20-point lead Theresa May took into the 2017 General Election - and look what happened then.

Yet Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is still holding on to between 13 and 16 per cent of the vote share.

The key to a Tory victory in any election is uniting the Leave vote, and Mr Johnson’s election message is simple: help me deliver Brexit. Those Brexit Party votes are likely to flood to the Tories.

And in the next election, the Conservatives won’t repeat the mistakes of the 2017 campaign: no ‘dementia tax’ debacle; no means-testing the winter fuel allowance; no ending of the pension triple lock. And perhaps most importantly, no introvert leader.

READ MORE: Boris Johnson ramps up planning for no-deal Brexit 

In 2017, Jeremy Corbyn looked fresh and exciting. But Boris Johnson is something else altogether: an entertainer who will grab all the headlines.

Last week, BBC Newsnight conducted a vox pop on a sun-drenched beach in Teeside – a Brexit-voting area historically dominated by Labour. People who spoke to Newsnight said they had never voted, but - yes - they would consider doing so for Mr Johnson. “He’ll get the job done,” said one woman.

Not only did these politically disengaged people instantly know who he was, they have already bought into his election campaign message.

But what of the other parties? The LibDems would relish a General Election. With their own new leader, and a clear Stop Brexit message, voters would flock back to the party in the south-west of England, London, and the cities – with one or two Scottish gains not impossible. They are also expected to win in the Tory seat of Brecon and Radnorshire on Thursday and defeat Labour in the Sheffield Hallam by-election.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said ‘together, there’s nothing we can’t achieve’. Except winning an election under Jeremy Corbyn, of course.

Any attempt at a coherent Brexit message is now too late for the party after Mr Corbyn’s endless dithering, and the leader will struggle for attention when up against two new exciting leaders.

At the weekend, one poll put Labour five points behind the Tories, but six points ahead if the party ditched Mr Corbyn. He is yesterday’s populist and his time is surely up.

Any chance of Labour ensuring that Mr Johnson is the shortest-serving Prime Minister probably relies on the party having a new leader – an unrealistic prospect given his huge support among members.

With Mr Corbyn still in place, his fence-sitting on Brexit and weakness on the Union will almost certainly reverse many of the gains in Scotland made by Kezia Dugdale in 2017. It is not inconceivable that Labour could end up in fourth place here if measured by the number of seats.

After the 2017 election, several of the SNP’s depleted Westminster contingent looked vulnerable: they are less so now and should expect to be joined by several new colleagues in a snap election.

As for the Scottish Conservatives, Mr Johnson’s apparent opposition to an election is likely to be the only thing that endears him to Ruth Davidson when they meet today. An election here would be a very different contest for the Tories compared to the one south of the Border.

The promise of a catastrophic hard Brexit and five years of Prime Minister Johnson threatens to undo all the hard work by Miss Davidson and her team to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland. Any possibility of building on the 12 gains from 2017 looks remote. It’s little surprise there is fevered talk among Scottish Tory politicians of the party now breaking away.

Mr Johnson is unlikely to find the time to listen to them, having largely decided to overlook Scottish MPs for his new Scotland Office team.

He will, however, have to listen to parliament given his slender majority.

The question is when he then decides it’s time to hear from the public?