ANALYSIS

BORIS Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon may find the time for a cursory meeting tomorrow, but it is the new Prime Minister’s sit-down with Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson that will be more interesting politically.

The new occupant of Number 10 knows Davidson was desperate for him to lose the Tory leadership contest. She fears he will be a disaster in office and is smarting at his sacking of ally David Mundell as Scottish Secretary. Their session will be, at best, cordial.

It has become a cliche to argue that a Johnson premiership is bad for Davidson, but that does not make it any less true. A no-deal Brexit, which the UK Government refuses to rule out, would be fatal for the Scottish Tories. It would wipe out the gains they made at the last general election and end Davidson’s already slim chances of becoming First Minister in 2021.

Independence: is it the only way to save the Scottish Tories?

In contemplating how to handle the new Prime Minister, Davidson is facing the biggest decision of her leadership. She could plump for the easy option and work her way into Team Johnson. This strategy would be geared towards influencing his decision-making and stopping him from making blunders.

This may be a fool’s errand. Not only did Johnson sack Mundell – a decision made in spite of Davidson’s lobbying – but he snubbed every other Scottish Tory MP by appointing a politician from the West Midlands as a junior Scotland Office minister. Johnson was warned about a red light and drove through it. Every week promises to be an ordeal for Davidson.

Johnson is a Unionist, but he is not a robust one. He gave himself the title of “Minister for the Union”, but no one should believe that the integrity of the UK is a vital part of his political DNA. His driving forces are ambition and staying in office, both of which can be satisfied by delivering Brexit, rather than providing succour to Davidson.

The Scottish Tory leader should look to the US to see how the strategy of appeasing a populist right-winger ends in failure. Congressional Republicans are instinctively in favour of immigration and fiscal conservatism, but have jettisoned their principles to cosy up to President Trump. They have ended up looking like supplicants.

Davidson’s alternative is to cut her ties to Johnson and set up her own Unionist party on the centre-right. In 2011, as a rookie MSP, she secured her party’s leadership by opposing this radical plan and her subsequent success appears to have vindicated this stance. However, many people believe the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party has hit its electoral limit.

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She remains unconvinced that abolishing her own party is the solution, but an increasing number of her allies are in favour and she is relaxed for them to make the case. A Channel 4 report from last week estimated that eight Tory MSPs supported the plan. Many will be Johnson antagonists.

I understand the irony at the heart of this proposal. Davidson is the most pro-Union politician in Scotland, so declaring independence from the Conservative party requires a degree of intellectual gymnastics. But it is not an impossible feat. It would be entirely feasible for a new party to be registered and financed in Scotland, while at the same time espousing Unionism. Hundreds of thousands of charities and businesses are incorporated north of the border without being tied to a UK parent. Political entities are no different.

The upsides are obvious. Davidson, as the leader of a financially independent party, would be putting the Union ahead of her current party. She would have total freedom to criticise Johnson, as and when she pleased, rather than carefully picking her fights. Scottish Tory MPs would have their own whipping arrangements at Westminster and be better placed to extract DUP-style concessions. It would be an ideal springboard from which to launch her bid to become First Minister.

Time is running out for Davidson. It is often said that a politician hits the downslope after ten years in the public eye. Think of Gordon Brown taking over from Tony Blair. By 2021, Davidson will have been Scottish Tory leader for a decade. She has one more shot at winning power and Johnson is an anchor dragging her to the sea-bed.