APATHY is normally the big winner in local elections.
In some places turnout can be lower than 25 per cent.
And while Brexit might have galvanised some to venture to the polling stations, equally it could be a big turn-off to others.
While there are no council elections in Scotland and Wales or London this time round, the political focus will, at the end of this week, be on England and just how big a drubbing Theresa May’s party will receive at the hands of disgruntled voters.
Most of the seats up for grabs on Thursday were fought over on the day of the 2015 General Election when David Cameron won an unexpected Commons majority; albeit of just 12. So the Tories start this week’s contest from a high water-mark.
It has been estimated the Conservatives, defending the largest number of seats, more than 4,900, could lose some 800 or 16 per cent.
While politicians engage in expectation management ahead of any poll to minimise the subsequent impact, the likelihood is that, given the Brexit malaise, the Tories could take a real drubbing.
Politically, this will be bad for the Prime Minister, continuing to wrestle in a Brexit straitjacket, and yet another drubbing in the European elections, still scheduled for May 23, could spell the end for Mrs May.
Altogether there are contests across 248 councils south of the border as well as 11 in Northern Ireland. Plus, there are elections for six directly elected mayors in the Midlands and northern England.
More than half of the local councils, 134, are controlled by the Conservatives, 67 by Labour and seven by the Liberal Democrats. Some 35 have no overall control. The remaining five are new councils because of local authority mergers.
While the Conservatives are just one seat away from winning Scarborough and could win the Midlands authorities of Walsall and Dudley, the elections are set to see big gains for Labour and the Lib Dems at the expense of the Tories.
Labour has its sights on places like Trafford in Greater Manchester and Redcar and Cleveland in the north east of England while the Lib Dems are looking to their traditional areas of North East Somerset and Bath as well as Winchester.
Although the key local topics will be the Conservative mantra of how Tory councils provide better services for less money and Labour’s pledge to improve bus services, the pervading Remain or Leave arguments of Brexit are set to dominate.
Boris Johnson, one of the expected candidates to challenge for the Conservative crown once Mrs May steps aside, has made a last-ditch plea to voters not to take out their Brexit “frustrations on effective and hard-working Tory councillors”.
Fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg made a similar appeal earlier this week, saying: “People, I hope, will think as they go to the polling station, that this is about their council tax, about their bin collection, about their road maintenance. It's not about Brexit.”
He added: “It would be very sad if some very good councillors lost because of a Brexit-related muddle."
However, such a sentiment could fall on deaf ears as voters direct their anger largely at the incumbent government, which has failed to get Brexit over the line despite all the promises to do so.
Around half the votes will be counted overnight on Thursday with the results due in the early hours of Friday morning while the other half will be counted Friday morning with the results due by lunchtime.
Once they are in, the writing could be on the wall for Mrs May’s premiership.
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