IT is two weeks since the UK was scheduled to leave the European Union, and the Brexit saga shows little sign of coming to an end.
Last night, EU leaders were locked in talks over whether to hand the UK an extension to the Article 50 process – and how long this should be.
Their decision will prove crucial when it comes to what happens next.
However long the extension, it is almost certain to see the UK taking part in the European elections between May 23 and 26 – three years after the country voted to leave – unless a deal can be passed before then.
All of Scotland’s main political parties saw this coming, and have already started looking for candidates.
But the elections are not the only obstacle looming on the horizon.
A new European Commission president is expected to take over from Jean-Claude Juncker on November 1. And a month later, a new European Council president will succeed Donald Tusk.
EU leaders are also gearing up to make budget decisions for 2021-27, although any final moves on this are at least a year away.
Nevertheless, it is clear the EU has important decisions to make. It wants to move on from Brexit.
There are also fears the UK could deliberately cause trouble if it is still in the EU and a Brexiter takes charge.
Closer to home, a range of possibilities open up depending on the length of delay, and whether talks between the Tories and Labour fail to find a compromise deal which MPs can accept.
If a longer extension is on the table, supporters of a second EU referendum will argue it should be too.
Another way to break the deadlock could be to hold a general election.
Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, this option needs the approval of two-thirds of MPs – or for Theresa May’s Government to lose a no-confidence vote while an alternative government fails to gain support.
A legal case launched by a cross-party group of Scottish politicians has also made clear the UK could choose to unilaterally revoke Article 50 and halt Brexit. However, this does not have support in Parliament and currently seems unlikely.
Of course, crashing out without a deal remains the default option at the end of any extension if nothing takes its place, despite MPs previously ruling this out. There are also serious questions over how long Mrs May can hang on, whatever happens.
In Scotland, attention will turn to Nicola Sturgeon. She has repeatedly promised an update on her timetable for a second independence referendum once there is more clarity over Brexit. With no sign of the fog lifting, the window is closing if she wants to hold a vote before the next Holyrood elections.
Only one thing seems certain: it’s going to be a long summer. The clock is ticking.
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