A population surge has sparked an urgent need for more than 400 extra classrooms by 2021, a new report has warned.

Figures show there will be an additional 13,600 pupils in secondary schools by 2020/21 requiring the equivalent of 453 extra classrooms, or 13 schools, to accommodate them.

With a new secondary school costing up to £35 million, the total cost of housing the extra pupils could top £450m – although not all councils will need to construct new buildings if there is capacity within existing schools.

Temporary classrooms are another option.

Pressure on the secondary sector comes after Scotland’s population rose for the eighth year running, with migration driving the increase, despite the number dropping after the Brexit vote.

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The report from public sector procurement specialists Scape Group said Aberdeen would experience the biggest increase, with pupil numbers rising by 1,400, or 17.5 per cent.

The second largest rise was in Edinburgh where numbers are set to climb by 7.5%.

Overall, Scape’s report, The School Places Challenge 2019, said Scotland’s school-aged population was set to increase by 4.8% over the next two years – although numbers will decline in primary.

The Scottish Government’s Schools for Future Programme, which began in 2009, is investing more than £1billion in the delivery of 117 new schools to help meet the growing demand for secondary school places.

However, Mark Robinson, chief executive of the Scape Group, said new buildings would be required at a faster rate.

He said: “Scotland needs to build hundreds of school classrooms in a short timeframe, and local authorities across the country continue to feel the strain.

“We must collectively focus on delivering a strategy and solutions which not only provide high-quality, modern spaces for teaching and learning, but also offer local authorities cost certainty, value for money and timely delivery. The issue of school places delivery is likely to be exacerbated in the coming years if we do not act now.”

Liz Smith, education spokeswoman for the Scottish Conservative Party, said the report was a “serious wake-up call” for Education Secretary John Swinney, both to build more classrooms and recruit more teachers.

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She said: “We already know the SNP has failed miserably in the recruitment of teachers and so this increase in pupil numbers will only increase the pressure.
“As yet, John Swinney does not appear to have any answers.

Not only is it difficult to recruit new teachers, but it is getting increasingly hard to retain existing teachers all because of the frustrations with SNP education policy.”

Iain Gray, education spokesman for the Scottish Labour Party, added: “Education is supposed to be the SNP’s top priority, but this report shows the challenges our schools face in the coming years thanks to a decade of SNP under-investment, lack of long term vision and failure to plan for demographic change.”

In 2017 the Scottish Liberal Democrats revealed that more than 200 schools had shut down in Scotland over the past decade with numbers falling to 2,524 from 2,730 in 2007.

Tavish Scott, the party’s education spokesman blamed a drive among cash-strapped councils to “rationalise” the school estate, with under-capacity schools replaced by multi-school campuses.

He said: “Many secondary schools have been closed as larger schools have been built. It is extraordinary that no-one apparently saw the consequences of this and did not plan for enough classrooms.

“There are serious questions to answer about how this situation was allowed to arise. Whatever the background, the future of a young’s persons education cannot be compromised by these obvious problems and parents will expect immediate action.”

Larry Flanagan, general secretary of the Educational Institute of Scotland teaching union, said the increasing pupil numbers reflected rising rolls in primaries in recent years.

He said: “We have been arguing for some time for increased student teacher numbers to expand capacity, not only to cope with increased rolls, but also to create space for smaller class sizes and improved pupil teacher ratios, which currently are at a standstill.

“Whilst progress has been made on pay, addressing the broader concerns of teachers around issues such workload  remains critical if we are to recruit the teachers necessary to cope with increased pupil numbers.”

However, a Scottish Government spokesman said: “Working with local councils since 2009 we will deliver 117 new school projects, benefitting 60,000 pupils, by March 2020, and we will look to build on that progress, investing a further £1 billion to rebuild and refurbish our schools.

“That follows £1.8 billion already invested in the last decade through the Schools for the Future programme, comprising £1.13 billion of Scottish Government funding and £665 million from councils. Through the programme, a new school project will be delivered in every local authority area in Scotland by 2020.”  

A spokesman for council umbrella body Cosla said all local authorities did detailed roll projections to assess demographic changes.

He added: “Councils school estate investment plans will reflect the investment to address any capacity challenges subject to available resources.”

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A City of Edinburgh Council spokesman said: “Edinburgh is widely considered to be leading the way in Scotland when it comes to proactively tackling the issue of rising school rolls with an innovative and collaborative approach.

“By 2023, we expect our population to increase by 23,000 people –  including an additional 4,000 children. This presents a huge challenge for us, but it’s one we’re tackling head on as we continue to invest in new and upgraded schools and early years centres. It’s crucial we create a first-class inclusive learning environment for all pupils and investing in our school estate is key. 

“We have already successfully delivered an additional 168 modern, high quality classrooms since 2012 to deal with rising roll pressures. Construction work will be starting later this year on our three new primary schools and we are already identified and started planning for extensions and new schools in other areas of the city where we know we need to increase places.”