ANALYSIS

NOBODY should underestimate the anxiety felt at Westminster by the prospect of the UK contesting the European Parliament elections.

The House of Commons has failed to break the Brexit deadlock and a Euro-poll would give voters an opportunity to deliver their verdict on the last three years of anarchy and despair.

A party backing a ‘no deal’ Brexit, perhaps with far right thug Tommy Robinson as a figurehead, could win seats in Brussels. No wonder the Prime Minister sees it as an unwelcome speck on the horizon.

However, fighting the Euros may be the ticket the UK has to produce to secure a lengthy extension to the botched Article 50 process. It could even serve to clarify the relationship voters want with the European Union.

The Scottish dimension would be fascinating. In the 2014 European Parliament election, the SNP won two of Scotland’s six seats, Labour matched that tally, while the Tories and UKIP secured one apiece.

That election was considered to be a poor result for the SNP. Alex Salmond was hoping to win three seats - his ally Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh stood to benefit - but UKIP’s high tide washed up David Coburn on our shores.

Recent elections have also been mixed for the Scottish Nationalists. They lost their Holyrood majority in 2016 and, against a backdrop of hostility to indyref 2, lost 500,000 votes and nearly twenty seats at the general election. The SNP Government’s poor stewardship of public services has contributed to a feeling of drift.

But Nicola Sturgeon has had a good Brexit, a conclusion her rivals concede privately. Not only has she aligned herself with the majority of Scottish opinion on the main issue of the day, but she has shown flexibility. Yes, she was late to the People’s Vote cause, but her support for a second referendum is robust. The SNP’s backing last week for Common Market 2.0, which would mean staying in the EU, also displays a lack of dogmatism.

Picture the SNP’s European campaign. Sturgeon would make clear the SNP is anti-Brexit and would call for the UK to stay in the EU by way of another public vote. She would speak directly to the 62% of voters north of the border who backed Remain, and reach out to the citizens from other EU countries who feel insecure. A third seat would be within reach.

The Scottish Tories, despite the shambles presided over by the Prime Minister, would also have a distinctive message. Ruth Davidson would call for a version of Brexit to be delivered, thus speaking to the one million Leave voters in Scotland. It would be enough to win one, possibly two, seats, particularly if Davidson mopped up the 10.5% of voters who backed UKIP last time.

Scottish Labour could be the biggest losers. On paper, the two big constitutional issues - independence and Brexit - should provide opportunities for Richard Leonard’s party, given that Labour is on the majority side on both. Simple logic dictates that being robustly pro-UK and pro-EU would be popular electorally.

However, Jeremy Corbyn has steered his party into being pro-Brexit, a consequence of his own euro-scepticism and Labour’s vote in England being split. Leonard, who is instinctively loyal to the UK leader, has rubber-stamped this ‘soft Brexit’ position and would fight the election promising to deliver an outcome disliked by over 60% of voters in Scotland.

With most Scottish Labour members being staunchly pro-Remain, it is also hard to imagine party activists campaigning for a policy they detest. Leonard could easily lose one of the two Euro seats to either the Tories or the SNP. He would certainly struggle to match the 25.9% of the vote won by Johann Lamont in 2014.

The Lib Dems, who are even more anti-Brexit than the SNP, would have an eye on the sort of Unionist/Remain voter Labour should target. Although Willie Rennie’s party still suffers from branding problems - folk have long memories about their coalition with the Tories - it it not impossible to foresee the Lib Dems winning 10% of the vote. The Scottish Greens would also be in the market for a seat.

But all eyes would be on the SNP. Holyrood is a sleepy place these days (while Westminster tears itself apart on Brexit, MSPs bore voters with tedious debates on car parking charges) and a resounding victory for the Nationalists would embolden Sturgeon’s party. The tectonic plates of Scottish politics could be about to shift again.