Parliament is poised to take full control of the Brexit process as Theresa May’s future looks in serious jeopardy with Tory calls now being openly made for her to go.
Kwarsi Kwarteng, the Brexit Minister, indicated this morning during an Urgent Question in the Commons that he believed MPs would have a free vote should the Prime Minister’s plan be rejected again and MPs get the chance to vote on a range of options in so-called “indicative votes” to try to establish support for a Plan B and avoid a no-deal happening on April 12; the new exit date set by Brussels.
Vicky Ford, a Conservative backbencher asked: "If [the deal] does not go through and then there are indicative votes, will they be free votes so everybody outside this chamber can truly see we're acting in a way to try and find the best way forward, though the circumstances are difficult?"
HERALD VIEW: No, Mrs May, MPs are not to blame for this mess
Mr Kwarteng replied: "Obviously, if the House is being asked to decide a way forward it would be surprising if those votes were not free votes.
"But again, she will understand that ultimate decision is a matter for the business managers and will be taken as and when the debate will take place."
Last week, a cross-party bid to have indicative votes was lost by just two votes.
Another bid, organised by Labour’s Hilary Benn and Conservative MPs Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve, will be made during a non-binding “next steps” debate on Monday. If it succeeds, then a debate and vote on finding a way forward to break the Brexit deadlock would take place on Wednesday.
It is suggested that as many as 18 ministers, including several Cabinet ministers, are prepared to defy Mrs May and leave the Government if she tries to block them from participating in a free vote on other options. The ministers are said to include Amber Rudd, David Mundell, Greg Clark and David Gauke, who rebelled against the PM by abstaining in last week’s whipped vote to reject a bid to rule out a no-deal Brexit.
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The options on an alternative would include: Labour’s customs union plan; a Norway-style withdrawal; a People’s Vote second referendum; a no-deal and revoking Article 50, that is, scrapping Brexit altogether.
Mr Benn, who chairs the Commons Brexit Committee, said: "We need to open up this process because we have rejected her deal, we've rejected no-deal, the EU has decided to give us a little more time and we've really got to get on with it."
Tory MP Nick Boles, who is pushing for a softer, Norway-style Brexit, said: "Frankly, at this point MPs need to start taking responsibility for the national interest and ignoring the whip if the whip is one that is profoundly contrary to the national interest.
"I hope that many of my colleagues, both in and out of Government, will actually look at the proposals we present to them on Monday and then on Wednesday and decide whether they believe in good conscience they can oppose them and I hope that many of them will conclude whatever the whip says they need to vote for them."
Following the European Council when, after hours of wrangling, the EU27 took control of the Brexit timetable offering two options to the UK: agree the PM’s deal next week and have an extension until May 22; fail to agree and have an extension until April 12, the legal deadline by which Britain will have to decide if it wants to participate in the May European elections.
If, as is still expected, MPs reject the PM’s plan, then the Commons will have until April 12 to agree on an alternative. If they do, then the EU will offer an extended extension in which to get a new deal and Britain will take part in the Euro poll; if they do not, then the country will leave the EU without a deal in three weeks’ time.
Following her return from the EU summit, Downing Street insisted the PM was "absolutely determined" to end the uncertainty over Brexit.
Mrs May has already been talking to ministers to try to garner enough support for a last-ditch bid to get her deal through the Commons next week.
"There is now a clear point of decision,” declared her spokesman. “If we are able to have a successful vote next week, then we can pass the necessary legislation for ratifying the agreement and we can, as a country, be outside the European Union two months today.
“The Prime Minister is absolutely determined to try to end the uncertainty and deliver clarity for the country and for employers."
Mrs May said at a late-night press conference in Brussels that she would be bringing back her Brexit deal for a third "meaningful vote" next week. But No 10 has not said on which day the vote would take place but her spokesman said it was important there was a "realistic prospect of success".
Tory backbencher Michael Fabricant expressed disappointment that the UK was not leaving the EU on March 29, saying: "Even the Bank of England now say that a no-deal Brexit is workable given the tranche of legislation that has been passed since November on both sides of the Channel."
He added: "At this difficult time we need a Churchill, not a Chamberlain."
His Conservative colleague Steve Double claimed Mrs May was now "isolated" within the party and called on her to consider her position.
"Although she has been clearly let down and undermined by a number of her Cabinet, ultimately the main responsibility for where we are today is hers."
Mr Double said Mrs May was unable to maintain collective responsibility after two-thirds of "her own parliamentary party voted against a motion [on extending Article 50] that she put to the House".
“It is quite clear that she is not leading her party. She is isolated, sadly, from a majority of the parliamentary party now. We need to find a way forward and that requires new leadership.
"I know that many people feel that next week is a defining moment and I would very much hope that she would reflect on her position. We have got to, as a party, reunite and I don't think we can do that around her leadership. I will be among many in the parliamentary party giving her a very clear message," he added.
One senior Conservative backbencher said the PM’s chances of getting her deal through next week were slim.
"It's very unlikely that she'll get her deal through next week. I don't think there's a majority for it. Unless she pulls a rabbit out of the hat over the weekend and secures the support of 70 or 80 Labour MPs, I don't see how she can get it through.”
He questioned whether replacing the PM was practical at this stage of the Brexit process. "I have no particular desire to see Theresa May step down, partly because I am by no means convinced that her stepping down is going to have any positive impact at all, because we need to find a replacement.
"It wouldn't be a replacement from six leisurely weeks of a Conservative Party leadership election, it would have to be one the following morning; where is that going to come from?” he asked.
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