BIRTHS in Scotland have fallen to their lowest level since records began in advance of Brexit, with “economic uncertainty” regarded as one of the factors.
National Records of Scotland said there were 12,580 births registered in the last quarter of 2018, a 1.8 per cent drop on the same period the previous year.
However the figure was 5.9% down on the Q4 average of the last five years.
It was the lowest level of registration since civil records began in 1855, and the second record low for birth numbers in a row, the previous record being in Q3 of 2018.
Expressed as a rate, there were 9.2 births per 1,000 population.
Prior to the second half of 2018, births last hit a record low of 12,785 in 2000, then rose to 14,540 in 2008, before falling again after the financial crash.
Deaths continued to outstrip births, with recent population growth driven by migration.
There were also 14,484 deaths registered between October and December last year, 4.7% lower than in the same period of 2017, but 0.6% up on the five-year average.
Expressed as a rate, there were 10.6 deaths per 1,000 population.
READ MORE: Dementia is now leading killer of women in Scotland
The NRS said there was no single reason for the fall in the number of births.
However it said possible causes included women postponing “childbearing until older ages” which in turn results in fewer children.
It also cited “economic uncertainty influencing decisions around childbearing, particularly given that the beginning of the recent fall coincided with the financial crash a decade ago”.
The provisional figures also recorded 6,125 marriages, 150 more than during the fourth quarter of 2018 (a rise of 2.5%).
There were 227 same-sex marriages, of which 25 were changes from civil partnerships.
There were only 24 civil partnerships (14 male and 10 female) in the same quarter.
READ MORE: Migration helps Scotland's population reach record high
Paul Lowe, the Registrar General for Scotland, said: “Continuing the downward trend since 2008, the number of births for the fourth quarter of 2018 has been at its lowest number recorded since civil registration began. This is the second record-low number of quarterly births in a row, with quarter three also falling to its lowest level in 2018.
“The number of deaths fell compared to the recent peak recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017, but was slightly higher than the average of the previous five years.”
SNP Migration Minister Ben Macpherson said: “These latest statistics provide more evidence of the importance of migration to Scotland and show births are at the lowest levels since records began.
“All of Scotland’s population growth over the next 25 years is projected to come from migration.
"The recent independent report by the Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population found that – if the UK Government ends free movement – Scotland’s working age population could decline by up to 5%. Furthermore, if EU migration falls to half its current levels, National Records of Scotland indicate a potential 4.3% drop in the proportion of children by 2041.
“We have been consistently clear that free movement should be allowed to continue in Scotland. The UK Government’s proposals to restrict migration do not reflect Scotland’s values or the needs of our economy, our public services and our communities.
“Scotland is an outward-looking, internationalist country and we welcome those from elsewhere in Europe and around the world who come here to live, work and study.”
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel